| 1954-2010年商丘降水变化趋势及突变分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张云霞.1954-2010年商丘降水变化趋势及突变分析[J].气象与环境科学,2011,34(3):67-73. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张云霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 商丘市气象局,河南商丘,476000 |
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| 基金项目： | 河南省商丘市科技攻关项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用线性回归、Mann-Kendall等方法,对商丘站1953年12月-2010年11月的年、季降水资料进行趋势分析、突变检验。结果显示：年、季降水量线性变化趋势均不显著,年降水量、冬夏季降水量在增加,春秋季降水量略有减少。年降水量在2003年,冬季降水量在1997年、春季降水量在1992年、夏季降水量在2003年、秋...
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| 关 键 词： | 降水量 降水日数 降水强度 变化趋势 突变 |
Precipitation Trend and Mutation Analysis of Shangqiu From 1954 to 2010 |
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| Abstract: | Using linear regression,Mann-Kendall and other methods,the article gets the results of trend analysis and mutation testing on annual and seasonal precipitation in Shangqiu from December 1953 to November 2010.The results indicate that the trend of annual and seasonal precipitation is not significant,in summer and winter,the precipitation shows an increasing trend,and decreasing in spring and autumn.Mutations in the annual precipitation occur in 2003.In the spring,summer,autumn and winter,the mutation occurred respectively in 1992,2003,1988 and 1997.The days of daily precipitation≥0.01 mm is significantly decreasing at 5.41 d/10a,the rainy days mutates at 1975.The increasing trend of daily precipitation ≥25.0 mm and 50.0 mm is not significant.Annual average daily precipitation increases significantly at 0.56 mm/10a,and the mutation occurs in 1974. |
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| Keywords: | precipitation precipitation days precipitation intensity change trend mutation |
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