| 慢性阻塞性肺病与气象因素相关性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李耀宁,陶立新,张子曰,王瑞文.慢性阻塞性肺病与气象因素相关性分析[J].气象与环境学报,2010,26(6):13-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李耀宁 陶立新 张子曰 王瑞文 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京市朝阳区气象局，北京 100016;2. 北京市朝阳医院，北京 100020 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局北京区域气象中心科技创新基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据2002—2007年北京朝阳医院逐月慢性阻塞性肺病（COPD）入院患者例次和北京朝阳气象站同期逐月地面气象资料，利用统计方法，进行相关分析，旨在探讨慢性阻塞性肺病与气候因素、气候变化的关系，保护人类免受不利气象条件的影响，利用有利的气象条件和气候资源来增强体质，预防疾病。结果表明：慢性阻塞性肺病与气温、相对湿度、气压和风速等气象因子有密切的相关性，当平均温度大于等于19.5℃时，慢性阻塞性肺病的发病例数较低；当平均温度小于19.5℃时，发病例数较高。当平均相对湿度大于等于53%时慢性阻塞性肺病的发病例数较低；当平均相对湿度小于53%时发病例数较高。当平均气压大于等于1009 hPa时，慢性阻塞性肺病的发病例数有升高的趋势；当平均气压小于1009 hPa时有下降的趋势，当平均风速大于等于3.0 m/s时，慢性阻塞性肺病的发病例数较高；当平均平均风速小于3.0 m/s时，发病例数较低。慢性阻塞性肺病发病的高发期相对于风速极大值滞后15 d。慢性阻塞性肺病发病存在着明显的月际变化和年际变化，从月际变化曲线来看慢性阻塞性肺病发病最高例数出现在4月，最低例数出现在7月；从年际变化曲线来看，慢性阻塞性肺病发病例数有逐年升高的趋势。根据气候变化、季节变化对慢性阻塞性肺病进行预测预防，以减少慢性阻塞性肺病的发生，可为该病的气象预报预警提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 慢性阻塞性肺病 气候变化 气象要素 相关分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-6-7 |
| 修稿时间： | 2010-8-23 |
Correlation analysis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and meteorological factors |
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| LI Yao-ning,TAO Li-xin,ZHANG Zi-yue,WANG Rui-wen.Correlation analysis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and meteorological factors[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2010,26(6):13-17. |
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| Authors: | LI Yao-ning TAO Li-xin ZHANG Zi-yue WANG Rui-wen |
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| Institution: | 1. Meteorological Bureau in ChaoYang District of Beijing, Beijing 100016, China; 2. Chaoyang Hospital of Beijing, Beijing 100020, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the monthly number of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) from 2002 to 2007 in Chaoyang hospital of Beijing and monthly meteorological data, the relationship between COPD occurrence and meteorological factors was analyzed by statistical method in order to prevent the disease from unfavorable weather conditions. The results show that COPD occurrence has close correlation with air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure and wind speed and so on. The number of patients with COPD is small or large when mean air temperature is equal and greater than or lower than 19.5 ℃; it is small or large when relative humidity is equal and greater than or less than 53%; it increases or decreases when mean air pressure is equal and greater than or less than 1009 hPa; it is small or large when wind speed is equal and more than or less than 3.0 m/s, respectively. Compared with the occurrence time of maximum wind speed, the high occurrence period of COPD is lagged 15 days. Monthly and annual changes of number of patients with COPD are significant. The number of patients with COPD is large in April and small in July, and it increases yearly. COPD could be prevent according to the prediction of climate change and seasonal change, which could reduce number of patients with COPD and provide references for early warning and forecasting of COPD. |
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| Keywords: | Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) Climate change Meteorological element Correlation analysis |
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