| 全球变暖中的科学问题 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵宗慈,罗勇,王绍武,黄建斌.全球变暖中的科学问题[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(1):1-5. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵宗慈 罗勇 王绍武 黄建斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 清华大学地球系统科学研究中心，北京 100084；2. 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室，北京 100081；3. 北京大学物理学院大气海洋系，北京 100871 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目，公益性行业(气象)科研专项，国家自然科学基金项目(41305054)共同资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 2013年各国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第一工作组发布了第五次气候变化科学评估报告，以大量的观测分析和气候模式模拟证据，继续强调由于人类排放增加，全球正在变暖，未来将继续变暖的观点。本文综述研究全球变暖的几个深层次的科学问题，即多套全球气温观测资料的差异、不同标准气候态时段的作用、20世纪全球变暖的检测和归因及未来全球气温变化的走向，以此提出需进一步研究的科学问题。结果表明；需要进一步提高观测资料的质量；注意不同标准气候态时段对应的数值的不同；应进一步改善气候模式模拟年代际变率的能力及研究近15 a全球变暖减缓和停滞的原因，从而改善气候模式的模拟效果；造成预估未来全球气候变化的不确定性主要来自气候模式的差异、未来排放情景的差异及气候系统内部变率影响和自然外强迫的作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 全球变暖 科学问题 IPCC |
Science issues on global warming |
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| ZHAO Zong-ci,LUO Yong,WANG Shao-wu,HUANG Jian-bin.Science issues on global warming[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2015,31(1):1-5. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Zong-ci LUO Yong WANG Shao-wu HUANG Jian-bin |
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| Institution: | 1. Center for Erath System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2. Open Lab of Climate Research, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3. Department of Atmosphere and Ocean, Physics School, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China |
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| Abstract: | The working group 1 of IPCC has published the fifth science assessment report in 2013. Based on lots of evidences of observations and simulations by climate models, it continues to emphasize the key point that the global is warming at the present time and continues to warm in the future due to increasing human emissions. Several scientific issues of global warming in this paper will be summarized, such as differences among several datasets of observed global surface air temperature, effects of different basic climate periods, detection and attribution of global warming during the 20th century, and the trends of global temperature change in the 21st century. It raises the further research issues of global warming in the future. The key points are: the qualities of the observed data should be raised; it should be noticed that the different basic climate periods have various values; the capabilities of both decadal and interdecadal variabilities as simulated by the climate models would be improved, and the reasons of the hiatus in global mean surface warming of the past 15 years have to be studied, therefore to revise the climate models; the uncertainties of projected the global climate change in future are from climate model differences, and various anthropogenic emission scenarios, as well as impacts of internal variability of climate system and actions of the natural external forcing. |
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| Keywords: | Global warming Science issues Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) |
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