| 晋江城市空气质量污染潜势统计预报方法初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵惠芳,陈雅莲,唐会荣,杨建东.晋江城市空气质量污染潜势统计预报方法初探[J].气象与环境学报,2009,25(5):27-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵惠芳 陈雅莲 唐会荣 杨建东 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.晋江市气象局，福建 晋江 362200;2.石狮市气象局，福建 石狮 362700 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省晋江市科技项目基金(2007-4-4-7)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据实际工作经验,通过分析气象条件对晋江空气质量的影响，建立了一套以天气形势为依托、综合考虑气象要素变化、以分类法和趋势外推法相结合的空气污染潜势的统计预报方法。经实践检验：用该方法预报空气质量为Ⅰ级和Ⅲ级以上的准确率分别为95.2%和79.2%，API指数误差在-10，10]的命中率达到82.5%。预报方法简单、经济、实用，预报准确率较高，可为沿海地区中小城市今后开展空气质量预报提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 空气质量 污染潜势 气象条件 统计预报方法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-5-7 |
| 修稿时间： | 2009-6-1 |
Preliminary study on urban air quality pollution potential statistical forecast method in Jinjiang, Fujian province |
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| ZHAO Hui-fang,CHEN Ya-lian,TANG Hui-rong,YANG Jian-dong.Preliminary study on urban air quality pollution potential statistical forecast method in Jinjiang, Fujian province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2009,25(5):27-30. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Hui-fang CHEN Ya-lian TANG Hui-rong YANG Jian-dong |
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| Institution: | 1.Jinjiang Meteorological Bureau, Jinjiang 362200, China; 2. Shishi Meteorological Bureau, Shishi 362700, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the effects of meteorological factors on air quality, together with weather situation and meteorological elements, a set of pollution potential statistical forecast method was developed with practical experience. The forecast accuracy rates of air quality over grades Ⅰ and Ⅲ reach 95.2% and 79.2%, respectively. The hit rates of API index errors in the range from -10 to 10 reach 82.5%. This forecast method is simple, economic and practical and has the higher accuracy rate, so it can provide the references for air quality forecast of middle and small cities in coastal area. |
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| Keywords: | Air quality Pollution potential Meteorological factors Statistical forecast methods |
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