| 基于CA-FCM方法的飞机增雨效果检验及分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 沙修竹,邵振平,刘艳华,王山海.基于CA-FCM方法的飞机增雨效果检验及分析[J].气象与环境学报,2020,36(2):78-84. |
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| 作者姓名： | 沙修竹 邵振平 刘艳华 王山海 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室, 河南 郑州 45000032. 河南省人工影响天气中心, 河南 郑州 450003 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室应用技术研究项目;河南省气象局气象科学技术研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用河南省2013—2017年飞机增雨作业资料，利用CA-FCM方法进行增雨效果检验，以探究CA-FCM方法在河南区域飞机增雨效果检验中的合理性及适用性，并分析相对增雨率与季节、检验物理量、垂直积分液态含水量之间的关系。结果表明：CA-FCM方法应用于河南省飞机增雨效果检验，能够获得定量而合理的增雨效果。多数作业相对增雨率0%—40%，少数作业存在减雨效果。研究中春季、夏季、秋季相对增雨率分别为20.8%、22.4%、-22.6%。春季、夏季飞机增雨效果明显优于秋季，一半的秋季增雨作业呈减雨效果，这可能与作业云层可播性条件有较大关系，春季、夏季云层可播性条件优于秋季。显著性检验表明，65%的作业增雨效果显著。增雨作业区域的垂直积分液态含水量越大，相对增雨率显著增加。具有“作业前回波30—50 dBz”、“作业云层尺度较大”条件的作业，易产生一定增雨效果；作业云层回波20—30 dBz，易产生减雨效果；回波强度及面积的维持或增强对增雨效果有明显贡献。
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| 关 键 词： | 聚类分析 相对增雨率 垂直积分液态含水量 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-01-12 |
Inspection and analysis of the effect of aircraft precipitation enhancement based on CA-FCM method |
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| Xiu-zhu SHA,Zhen-ping SHAO,Yan-hua LIU,Shan-hai WANG.Inspection and analysis of the effect of aircraft precipitation enhancement based on CA-FCM method[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2020,36(2):78-84. |
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| Authors: | Xiu-zhu SHA Zhen-ping SHAO Yan-hua LIU Shan-hai WANG |
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| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Agro-meteorlogical Safeguard Application Technique, China Meteorological Administration, Zhengzhou 450003, China2. The Weather Modification Center of He'nan Province, Zhengzhou 450003, China |
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| Abstract: | Using the data of aircraft precipitation enhancement (APE) from 2013 to 2017 in He'nan province, the rationality and applicability of CA-FCM method in the APE effect inspection was investigated, and the relationships between the relative precipitation enhancement rate (RPER) and season, the physical quantity of inspection, vertical integrated liquid water were analyzed.The result shows that the application of CA-FCM in APE effect inspection in He'nan province can obtain a quantitative and reasonable effect.The RPERs of most operations range from 0% to 40%, and few operations make rain reduced.The RPERs in spring, summer, and autumn are 20.8%, 22.4%, and -22.6%, respectively.The APE effects in spring and summer are obviously better than that in autumn, and the half of autumn APEs generate precipitation reduction effect, which is probably related to cloud condition.The cloud availabilities for APE in spring and summer are superior to that in autumn.The significance test result shows that 65% of APE effects are significant.The higher vertical integrated liquid water content is in the APE area, the more the RPERs increase significantly.In addition, the APE conducted under the conditions of pre-operation echo ranging from 30 to 50 dBz and the large scale operation cloud, easily achieves certain precipitation enhancement effect, while that with operation cloud echo of 20-30 dBz is easy to produce precipitation reduction effect.Besides, the maintenance or enhancement of echo intensity and the area plays a significant role in increasing the APE effect. |
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| Keywords: | Cluster analysis Relative precipitation enhancement rate Vertical integrated liquid water content |
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