| 气象条件对北京夏季中暑的影响及预测研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 党冰,刘博,尹岭,周忠玉,何史林,黎檀实,尚可政,王式功.气象条件对北京夏季中暑的影响及预测研究[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(2):67-72. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 党冰 刘博 尹岭 周忠玉 何史林 黎檀实 尚可政 王式功 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.兰州大学大气科学学院 甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室，甘肃 兰州 730000；2. 北京市气候中心，北京 100089；3. 中国人民解放军总医院，北京 100853；4. 杨凌气象局，陕西 杨凌 712100 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(气象)科研专项，国家科技支撑计划课题，国家人口健康科学数据共享平台专题“气象环境与健康专题服务”共同资助。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用2009-2012年北京市467例中暑病例与同期9个气象要素资料和当日及前期1-4 d累积平均气象要素共45个气象因子，采用相关分析法分析北京夏季中暑发病人数与气象因子之间的关系|采用多元线性回归和非线性拟合方法构建了改进的北京中暑气象预报模型，选取拟合优度较好的模型对中暑人数进行回代及预测检验，并与现用模型进行对比。结果表明：气温是引发北京夏季中暑的决定性因子|气温、水汽压、气压及降水的两日累积效应均高于当日效应，表明气象要素的连续累积作用对人体中暑影响较大|建立的中暑预报模型具有较好的历史拟合及预测效果，中暑等级划分较合理，对北京市中暑气象等级预报服务和公众有效防范中暑有实际的指导意义。
|
| 关 键 词： | 中暑 气象因子 相关分析 预报模型 |
Effect of meteorological conditions on heatstroke in summer and its prediction in Beijing |
| |
| DANG Bing,LIU Bo,YIN Ling,ZHOU Zhong-yu,HE Shi-lin,LI Tan-shi,SHANG Ke-zheng,WANG Shi-gong.Effect of meteorological conditions on heatstroke in summer and its prediction in Beijing[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2015,31(2):67-72. |
| |
| Authors: | DANG Bing LIU Bo YIN Ling ZHOU Zhong-yu HE Shi-lin LI Tan-shi SHANG Ke-zheng WANG Shi-gong |
| |
| Institution: | 1.Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster in Gansu Province, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou university, Lanzhou 730000, China; 2. Beijing Climate Center, Beijing 100089, China; 3.General Hospital of PLA, Beijing 100853, China; 4.Yangling Meteorological Service, Yangling 712100, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on 467 heatstroke cases, daily meteorological data and 1-4 days’ accumulated meteorological elements before heatstroke day from 2009 to 2012 in Beijing (sum 45 meteorological factors), relationships between heatstroke incidence and meteorological factors were analyzed by a correlation method. Improved forecast models of heatstroke were established by methods of a multiple linear regression and a nonlinear fitting, and the better model was selected to back substitution and verification for number of heatstroke patients. Also, this model was compared with the current used model. The results show?that temperature is a dominant factor causing heatstroke in summer in Beijing. Cumulative effects of temperature, vapor pressure, air pressure and precipitation in two days have a greater impact on heatstroke. In addition, new models have better fitting and forecasting effect for heatstroke, so is the grades of heatstroke. Thus, the models are of indicative to forecast heatstroke grades and prevent heatstroke. |
| |
| Keywords: | Heatstroke Meteorological factor Correlation analysis Forecast model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象与环境学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象与环境学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
