| 1958-2012年来河北汛期暴雨气候变化特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄鹤,杨超,于雷,乐章燕,王志超,马鸿青.1958-2012年来河北汛期暴雨气候变化特征分析[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(2):44-50. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄鹤 杨超 于雷 乐章燕 王志超 马鸿青 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.保定市气象局，保定071000；2. 廊坊市气象局，廊坊 065000 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(气象)科研专项“华北、东北暴雨发生发展特点及预报技术研究”(GYHY200906011)资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用1958-2012年河北21个基准站和基本站逐日降水观测资料，分析了河北汛期暴雨的气候分布特征、年际、年代际变化以及趋势变化特征。结果表明，汛期暴雨分布呈现东部、南部多，向西北部递减的特征。最大暴雨量中心在河北东部、燕山南麓的唐山、秦皇岛地区。从年际和年代际尺度分析，暴雨量、频次、强度都存在2-3 a的年际变化周期信号，暴雨量和频次在20世纪80年代以后存在15-20 a的年代际周期信号。汛期暴雨量、暴雨频次时间序列整体呈现下降趋势，特别是21世纪以来，河北暴雨量和暴雨频次下降趋势更为明显，暴雨强度在近50 a变化幅度不大。在空间分布上，暴雨量、暴雨频次和暴雨强度三个特征量在年代际变化中整体都呈现东退南缩的特征。从趋势分析看来，大部分站点汛期暴雨量、频次、强度都呈现下降趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 汛期 暴雨 周期 小波分析 |
Analysis of climate change characteristics of rainstorm during flood season from 1958 to 2012 in Hebei province |
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| HUANG He,YANG Chao,YU Lei,LE Zhang-yan,WANG Zhi-chao,MA Hong-qing.Analysis of climate change characteristics of rainstorm during flood season from 1958 to 2012 in Hebei province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2015,31(2):44-50. |
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| Authors: | HUANG He YANG Chao YU Lei LE Zhang-yan WANG Zhi-chao MA Hong-qing |
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| Institution: | 1.Baoding Meteorological Service, Baoding 071000, China; 2. Langfang Meteorological Service, Langfang 065000, China |
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| Abstract: | Using daily precipitation data at 21 weather stations in Hebei province from 1958 to 2012, climatic characteristics, annual and inter-decadal variations of heavy rain events and their trends during flood seasons were analyzed. The results indicate that heavy rain events during flood season are higher in the east and south than in the northwest. The largest center of heavy rain is located in the east of Hebei province, Tangshan and Qinhuangdao regions. According to the analysis of the inter-annual and inter-decadal scale, rainfall, frequency and intensity of heavy rain have a 2-3-year cycle, and the first two have a 15-20-year cycle after 1980s. Rainfall and frequency of heavy rain during flood season are in a declining trend, especially after 21st century. However, change of heavy rain intensity is not significant. For spatial distribution of heavy rain, inter-decadal rainfall and frequency as well as intensity all decrease to east and to south, and three indexes are in a declining trend in the most weather stations. |
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| Keywords: | Flood season Heavy rain Cycle Morlet analysis |
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