| 盘锦市脑血管病气象敏感因子分析及其预报模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨文艳,袁潮,孙卓,白如玉,王斌飞.盘锦市脑血管病气象敏感因子分析及其预报模型[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(3):85-90. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨文艳 袁潮 孙卓 白如玉 王斌飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 盘锦市气象局，辽宁盘锦124010 |
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| 基金项目： | 资助项目：辽宁省气象局2009年科研课题“盘锦公共卫生气象条件研究”资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 应用盘锦市疾控中心2008年1月1日至2009年12月31日逐日脑血管病发病人数及同期逐日气象资料，采用相关分析、逐步回归等方法，分析了脑血管病与气象要素的关系，建立了逐日脑血管病发病趋势的气象预报模型。结果表明：各类气象要素与未来3 d脑血管病发病人数滑动平均具有较好的相关性；气象因子对脑血管病发病人数的影响存在着一种滞后效应和持续效应；脑血管病发病人数与当日最低气温、平均气温、最低气压、平均风速、湿度、最大气温日较差等气象要素相关显著；不同的季节影响脑血管病发病人数的敏感气象因子不同，且相关关系差异较大。逐日脑血管病发病趋势的气象预报模型预报检验效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 脑血管病 气象因子 预报模型 |
Analysis of hypersensitive meteorological factors of cerebrovascular disease and its prediction model in Panjin |
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| YANG Wen-yan,YUAN Chao,SUN Zhuo,BAI Ru-yu,WANG Bin-fei.Analysis of hypersensitive meteorological factors of cerebrovascular disease and its prediction model in Panjin[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2014,30(3):85-90. |
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| Authors: | YANG Wen-yan YUAN Chao SUN Zhuo BAI Ru-yu WANG Bin-fei |
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| Institution: | Panjin Meteorological Service, Panjin 124010, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the number of the cerebrovascular patients obtained from Panjin center for disease control and prevention during 2008-2009 and the synchronous meteorological data,the relationship between cerebrovascular disease and meteorological elements,a meteorological forecasting model on the cerebrovascular disease incidence trend was established by methods of a correlative analysis and a stepwise regression.The results indicate that there is a relatively good correlation between the meteorological elements and the moving average of the number of the cerebrovascular patients in the coming three days.The impacts of the meteorological factors on the number of the cerebrovascular patients have the hysteresis and persistency effects.The number of the cerebrovascular patients has obvious correlation with the meteorological elements such as the daily minimum air temperature,average air temperature,the minimum pressure,average wind speed,humidity,and the maximum daily temperature range and so on.The number of the cerebrovascular patients is affected by different hypersensitive meteorological factors in different seasons,and the correlations between them differ greatly.The tests have shown that the accurate rates of the cerebrovascular disease incidence trend model are relatively high. |
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| Keywords: | Cerebrovascular disease Meteorological factors Prediction model |
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