| 营口地区数值预报降水产品定量检验和预报指标研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张晶,姚文,何晓东,吴福杰,赵晓川,王东.营口地区数值预报降水产品定量检验和预报指标研究[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(1):30-35. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张晶 姚文 何晓东 吴福杰 赵晓川 王东 |
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| 作者单位： | 营口市气象局，辽宁 营口 115001 |
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| 基金项目： | 2011年辽宁省营口市气象局课题“营口数值预报产品客观定量检验和预报指标研究”资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 选取2010年8月至2011年7月天气在线、日本传真图、美国全球预报系统（以下简称GFS）、以及T639等数值预报降水预报产品，采用统计学方法和天气学方法，按照预报时效、预报降水量级、影响系统等不同方面对营口地区的降水预报产品进行检验分析，以便更好的利用数值产品做好降水预报，提高营口地区的降水预报准确率。结果表明：从整体角度看各种数值预报产品预报准确率随时间变化逐渐降低，但天气在线和GFS预报效果相对较好且稳定，日本传真图次之，T639稳定性最差；各种数值预报产品均存在预报偏小的情况，特别是对暴雨的预报效果均不太理想，稳定性差、量级偏小；小雨量级降水空报和漏报明显；各种数值预报产品对高空槽和冷涡漏报情况较明显，主要为小雨量级。
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| 关 键 词： | 数值预报降水产品 检验 预报指标 |
Study on quantitative test and forecast index of numerical forecast precipitation products in Yingkou region |
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| ZHANG Jing,YAO Wen,HE Xiao-dong,WU Fu-jie,ZHAO Xiao-chuan,WANG Dong.Study on quantitative test and forecast index of numerical forecast precipitation products in Yingkou region[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2014,30(1):30-35. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jing YAO Wen HE Xiao-dong WU Fu-jie ZHAO Xiao-chuan WANG Dong |
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| Institution: | Yingkou Meteorological Service, Yingkou 115001, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the numerical forecast precipitation products from the weather online, the Japan facsimile chart, the United States global forecast system （GFS） and the T639 during August of 2010 to July of 2011 ,precip- itation forecast products in Yingkou region were tested by a statistic method and a synoptic method in terms of forecast time validity, forecast precipitation intensity grades and influence system and so on in order to improve the accuracy of forecast. The results show that the accuracy rates of various numerical forecast products decrease gen- erally with the time, while the forecast effect from the weather online and the GFS is good and stable, then from the Japan facsimile chart. The stability of the T639 is the worst among all methods. The simulated value from the various numerical forecast products is lower than the observed value, especially for the heavy rain forecast with poor stability and small precipitation grade. There is obviously false alarm and failed forecast for light rain. There is failed forecast for the upper trough and cold vortex among all numerical forecast products, and most are in the light rain magnitude. |
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| Keywords: | Precipitation products from numerical prediction Inspection Forecast index |
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