| 冰雹指数的误差分析及在冰雹云识别中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭晓超,肖蕾,李明元,姚正兰,姚成勇.冰雹指数的误差分析及在冰雹云识别中的应用[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(1):36-42. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭晓超 肖蕾 李明元 姚正兰 姚成勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 遵义市气象局，贵州 遵义 563002 |
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| 基金项目： | 贵州省科技计划“贵州省交通安全气象风险区划及应用平台研究一以遵义为示范点”（黔科合SY字（2012）3054号）和遵义市气象局科研项目“遵义市新一代多普勒天气雷达在人工增雨防雹中的应用研究”共同资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 利用模拟测试方法研究了几个重要因子对冰雹指数误差的影响，并根据遵义新一代多普勒天气雷达资料，使用探测概率、临界成功指数和误报率为衡量指标，对2008年3月到2012年7月12次冰雹天气过程中25个降雹风暴和72个非降雹风暴的冰雹指数进行分析评估。结果表明：H0、反射率因子垂直廓线和目标离雷达的距离等因子对POSH误差的影响较大，Hm20对其影响较小。POH识别冰雹云的误报率较高，临界成功指数较小；POSH识别效果好于POH，通过增大阈值可以提高临界成功指数和减小误报率，但是当阈值太大时，探测概率会较低，为了获得较大的探测概率和临界成功指数，减小误报率，以POSH=70为阈值时识别效果最好；在POSH识别冰雹云时加上VIL>20 kg·m-2的条件对探测概率没有影响，但是当阈值小于90时，可以减少误报率和提高临界成功指数。
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| 关 键 词： | 高原山区 冰雹指数 参数修正 |
Error analysis of hail index and its application to haft cloud identification |
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| GUO Xiao-chao,XIAO Lei,LI Ming-yuan,YAO Zheng-lan,YAO Cheng-yong.Error analysis of hail index and its application to haft cloud identification[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2014,30(1):36-42. |
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| Authors: | GUO Xiao-chao XIAO Lei LI Ming-yuan YAO Zheng-lan YAO Cheng-yong |
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| Institution: | Zunyi Meteorological Service, Zunyi 563002, China |
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| Abstract: | The effects of several important factors on the error of hail index were analyzed by a simulation test method. Using the measurement indexes of probability of detection （ POD ）, critical success index （ lcs ） and false a- larm ratio （RFA） ,the 25 hail storms and 72 non-hail storms among 12 hail processes during March of 2008 to July of 2012 were assessed based on the new generation Doppler weather radar data in Zunyi City. The results indicate that H0, the vertical profile of reflectivity factor and distance between the target and radar have great influence on POSH error, while Hr~0 has insignificant influence. There are high RFA and low lcs when POH are used to recog- nize hail cloud. Identification effect of POSH is better than that of POH. Increasing threshold can enhance Ics and decrease RFA. The PoD is low when the threshold is larger. POSH = 70 is the best threshold, with which high PoD and Ics and low RFA Can be obtained. PoD has no change when POSH and VIL 〉20 kg.m^-2 are used together to i- dentify hail cloud,but lower RFA and higher Ics can be obtained when the threshold of POSH is less than 90. |
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| Keywords: | Highland mountainous area Hail index Parameter correction |
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