| BCC_CSM1.1(m)模式对初夏东北冷涡的模拟及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 焦敏,李辑,于亚鑫,胡春丽,王莹,周斌.BCC_CSM1.1(m)模式对初夏东北冷涡的模拟及应用[J].气象与环境学报,2019,35(4):55-62. |
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| 作者姓名： | 焦敏 李辑 于亚鑫 胡春丽 王莹 周斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 辽宁省生态气象和卫星遥感中心,辽宁 沈阳,110166;沈阳中心气象台,辽宁 沈阳,110166 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201306021）、国家自然科学基金（41605087）和辽宁省气象局科学技术研究课题（BA201907）共同资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1991-2017年BCC_CSM1.1（m）模式模拟数据和NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料，评估了BCC_CSM1.1（m）对初夏东北冷涡的模拟能力。结果表明：BCC_CSM1.1（m）模式可以对500 hPa位势高度场气候态进行模拟，均方根误差显示该模式对中国东北南部地区500 hPa位势高度场的模拟要优于东北北部地区。EOF第一模态结果显示，该模式可以较好地模拟出500 hPa位势高度场的主要时空变化特征。BCC_CSM1.1（m）模式能够模拟出近27 a东北冷涡指数的上升趋势和年际变化，但模拟的上升趋势较实况偏强，年际变率较实况偏弱。BCC_CSM1.1（m）模式能够模拟出东北冷涡指数的年代际突变，但是对突变开始时间的模拟较实况偏晚。BCC_CSM1.1（m）模式能够模拟出东北冷涡指数和500 hPa位势高度场在东北及其附近地区的显著正相关，不能模拟出东北冷涡指数与东北初夏降水之间的显著负相关。此外，模式东北冷涡指数对东北初夏降水的预测能力十分有限。
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| 关 键 词： | BCC_CSM1.1(m) 东北冷涡 模式模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-11-27 |
Exploration of simulation and application of early summer cold vortex in Northeast China using the BCC_CSM1.1(m) model |
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| JIAO Min,LI Ji,YU Ya-xin,HU Chun-li,WANG Ying,ZHOU Bin.Exploration of simulation and application of early summer cold vortex in Northeast China using the BCC_CSM1.1(m) model[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2019,35(4):55-62. |
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| Authors: | JIAO Min LI Ji YU Ya-xin HU Chun-li WANG Ying ZHOU Bin |
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| Institution: | 1. Ecological Meteorology and Satellite Remote Sensing Center of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110166, China;2. Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory, Shenyang 110166, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the numerical simulation data of the BCC_CSM1.1 (Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1) (m) model and the NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data from 1991 to 2017,the ability of BCC_CSM1.1 (m) model to simulate the cold vortex in Northeast China in early summer was evaluated.The results demonstrate that the BCC_CSM1.1 (m) model is basically successful in simulating the climate state of 500 hPa geopotential height fields.The mean square root error shows that the simulation result of the 500 hPa geopotential height fields in the south of Northeast China is better than that in the north of Northeast China.The first EOF mode of 500 hPa geopotential height fields demonstrates that the BCC_CSM1.1 (m) model can well simulate the major temporal and spatial features.The BCC_CSM1.1 (m) model can well simulate the upward trend and interannual variability of the northeast cold vortex (NECV) index in the last 27 years,however,the simulated upward trend is stronger than the actual situation and the interannual variability is weaker than the actual situation.The BCC_CSM1.1 (m) model can also successfully reproduce the interdecadal abrupt change of the NECV index,however,the start time of abrupt change is later than that of the actual situation.It is able to successfully simulate the significant positive correlation between the NECV index and the 500 hPa geopotential height fields in Northeast China and nearby areas,however,it fails to catch the significant negative correlation between the NECV index and the early summer rainfall in Northeast China.Furthermore,the ability of the NECV index to simulate the rainfall in early summer in Northeast China is very limited. |
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| Keywords: | BCC_CSM1 1(m) Cold vortex in Northeast China Simulation |
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