| 沈阳市降水概率预报服务系统 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 路爽,廖国进,李喜有,侯亚红.沈阳市降水概率预报服务系统[J].气象与环境学报,2006,22(1):68-71. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 路爽 廖国进 李喜有 侯亚红 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.沈阳市气象局 沈阳110168;2.辽宁省气象影视中心 沈阳110016 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 沈阳市降水概率预报服务系统是在日本数值预报的基础上应用多种统计方法建立MOS预报方程,对其预报结果应用概率回归集成制作降水概率预报。TS评分结果表明:MOS预报的降水确率高于日本数值预报,MOS集成预报的结果在各种MOS预报结果平均偏上的水平。概率预报的Brier评分结果表明:在MOS综合基础上的概率回归(REEP)方法得出的概率预报结果较为理想。
|
| 关 键 词： | MOS预报 MOS预报集成 概率预报 TS评分 Brier评分 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-06-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-06-152005-08-30 |
Shenyang precipitation probability forecasting service system |
| |
| LU Shuang,LIAO Guojin,LI Xiyou,HOU Yahong.Shenyang precipitation probability forecasting service system[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2006,22(1):68-71. |
| |
| Authors: | LU Shuang LIAO Guojin LI Xiyou HOU Yahong |
| |
| Institution: | 1.Shenyang Meteorological Bureau;Shenyang 110168; 2.Liaoning Meteorological Video Center;Shenyang 110016 |
| |
| Abstract: | Shenyang precipitation probability forecasting service system could provide with precipitation probability prediction,based on REEP method and MOS forecasting equations from Japanese numerical weather prediction production and multiple statistical methods.TS verification technique indicated that the accuracy of forecasting precipitation from MOS forecasting equations was higher than that from Japanese numerical weather prediction.The accuracy of forecasting precipitation from MOS integration forecast was higher than that from the average one of all kinds of the statistical methods.The Brier verification technique of forecasting precipitation probability showed that REEP method based on several MOS forecast methods could give the best prediction. |
| |
| Keywords: | MOS forecast Integrated MOS forecast Precipitation probability forecast TS verification technique Brier verification technique |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象与环境学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象与环境学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
