| 5个全球气候模式对中国东北地区地面温度的模拟与预估 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 崔妍,李倩,周晓宇,张晓月,赵春雨.5个全球气候模式对中国东北地区地面温度的模拟与预估[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(4):37-46. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 崔妍 李倩 周晓宇 张晓月 赵春雨 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.沈阳区域气候中心，辽宁 沈阳 110016；2.辽宁省气象科学研究所，辽宁 沈阳 110016；3.辽宁省气象信息中心，辽宁 沈阳 110016 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国气象局2010年气候变化专项，科技部行业专项"近百年全球陆地气候变化监测技术及应用" |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用5个全球气候模式和中国东北地区162个站点地面温度实测资料，评估全球气候模式和多模式集合平均对中国东北地区地面温度的模拟能力，并对SRES B1、A1B和A2排放情景下，中国东北地区未来地面温度变化进行预估。结果表明：全球气候模式能够较好地再现了东北地区地面温度的年变化和空间分布特征，但存在系统性冷偏差，模式对夏季地面温度模拟偏低1.16 ℃，优于冬季。预估结果表明，3种排放情景下21世纪中期和末期东北地区地面温度均将升高，末期增幅高于中期，冬季增幅高于其他季节， SRES A2排放情景下增幅最大，B1排放情景下最小；增温幅度自南向北逐渐增大，增温最显著地区位于黑龙江小兴安岭；21世纪末期3种情景下中国东北地区年平均地面温度将分别升高2.39 ℃(SRES B1)、3.62 ℃(SRES A1B)和4.43 ℃(SRES A2)。
|
| 关 键 词： | 全球气候模式 地面温度 预估 |
Simulation and projection of the surface temperature based on five global climate models over the northeast China |
| |
| CUI Yan
,
LI Qian
,
ZHOU Xiao-yu
,
ZHANG Xiao-yue
,
ZHAO Chun-yu.Simulation and projection of the surface temperature based on five global climate models over the northeast China[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2013,29(4):37-46. |
| |
| Authors: | CUI Yan LI Qian ZHOU Xiao-yu ZHANG Xiao-yue ZHAO Chun-yu |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Shenyang Regional Climate Center, Shenyang 110016, China; 2. Institute of Meteorological Science in Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110016, China; 3. Meteorological Information Center in Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110016, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the observed temperature data at 162 weather stations in the northeast China and five IPCC AR4 coupled climate models,the simulation abilities of global climatic model and multi model ensemble average for surface temperature were evaluated, and the variation of temperature in the future was projected under SRES B1, A1B and A2 three emission scenarios. Tberesults show that the annual variation and spatial distribution of the surface temperature over the northeast China could be simulated accurately by the global climate models. However, the simulated values are systematically lower than the observed values in the study area. The simulated value in summer is 1.16 ~C lower than the observed value,while it is better than that in winter. The multi-model ensemble （MME） suggests that climate over the northeast China will has a warming trend in the middle and last period of 21st century under the three emission scenarios. The increasing amplitude of temperature is larger in the last period than in the middle period, so is in winter than in other seasons. Among the three scenarios, it is the largest under SRES A2 scenario and smallest under B1 scenario ,respectively. The increasing amplitude of temperature increases from south to north, and the most obvious warming area is located in Xiaoxing＇anling mountain of Heilongjiang province. The mean annual surface temperature in the northeast China would increase 2. 39 ℃ under SRES B 1 sce- nario,3.62 ℃ under SRES A1B scenario and 4. 43 ℃ under SRES A2 scenario in the last of 21st century,respec- tively. |
| |
| Keywords: | Global climate model Emission scenario Surface temperature Projection |
| 本文献已被 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象与环境学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象与环境学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
