| 天气学检验在东北区域数值模式秋冬季降水预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 崔锦,周晓珊,张爱忠,阎琦,黄阁,张伟.天气学检验在东北区域数值模式秋冬季降水预报中的应用[J].气象与环境学报,2009,25(4):17-21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 崔锦 周晓珊 张爱忠 阎琦 黄阁 张伟 |
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| 作者单位： | （1. 中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所，辽宁 沈阳 110016;2. 沈阳军区空军气象中心，辽宁沈阳 110015;3. 辽宁省气象台，辽宁 沈阳 110016; 4. 辽宁省气象科技服务中心， 辽宁 沈阳 110016） |
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| 基金项目： | 辽宁省气象局项目"东北区域业务数值预报降水预报的天气学检验"资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据影响天气系统不同，利用2007年9月－2008年2月东北区域中尺度数值模式12h累积降水预报和东北地区常规站降水实况资料，采用天气学检验方法，从降水中心强度、中心位置、降水主体强度、落区、范围和移速6个方面对东北区域中尺度模式降水预报产品的预报性能进行检验。结果表明：模式对东北地区秋、冬季降水有很好的预报能力，但因天气系统和预报时效不同其预报能力也有较大差异，其中对高空槽预报效果最好；一般情况下，在预报出现偏差时中心和主体强度易偏强，雨带范围易偏大，移速易偏慢。
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| 关 键 词： | 东北区域数值预报模式 降水预报 天气学检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-12-4 |
| 修稿时间： | 2009-2-26 |
Application of synoptic verification in autumn and winter precipitation forecast of NWP model in Northeast China |
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| CUI Jin,ZHOU Xiao-shan,ZHANG Ai-zhong,YAN Qi,HUANG Ge,ZHANG Wei.Application of synoptic verification in autumn and winter precipitation forecast of NWP model in Northeast China[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2009,25(4):17-21. |
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| Authors: | CUI Jin ZHOU Xiao-shan ZHANG Ai-zhong YAN Qi HUANG Ge ZHANG Wei |
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| Institution: | (1. Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110016,China; 2. Meteorological Center of Air Force, Shenyang Military Region, Shenyang 110015, China; 3. Liaoning Meteorological Observatory, Shenyang 110016, China; 4. Service Center of Meteorological Science and Technology in Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110016, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on 12 h cumulated precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) model in Northeast China and rainfall observation data from September 2007 to February 2008 as well as the classification of synoptic system, precipitation forecast products were verified by synoptic verification method in terms of intensity and position of precipitation center, intensity, falling areas, ranges and moving velocity of precipitation main body. The results indicate that precipitation forecast in autumn and winter is accurate based on NWP model. Forecast ability is different because of the difference of weather system and prediction time. Forecast to upper level trough is accurate. If forecast has deviation, it shows that the intensity of center and main body are commonly stronger, precipitation belt range is larger and moving velocity is slower than that of observation. |
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| Keywords: | Numerical weather prediction (NWP) model in Northeast China Precipitation forecast Synoptic verification |
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