| 联合概率方法在北京灾害天气预报中的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 付宗钰,于波,荆浩,纪彬,周璇,秦庆昌,杜佳,李桑.联合概率方法在北京灾害天气预报中的应用研究[J].气象与环境学报,2020,36(5):1-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 付宗钰 于波 荆浩 纪彬 周璇 秦庆昌 杜佳 李桑 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京市气象台, 北京 100089 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京市自然科学基金;国家重点研发计划;北京市气象局科技项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于ECMWF模式的集合预报数据，利用联合概率方法，针对北京地区冬季影响最大的寒潮和夏季强对流两类灾害性天气，建立了适用于本地区的两种集合预报业务产品。选取2 m温度和10 m平均风速制作寒潮预警信号联合概率预报产品，选取对流有效位能和0-6 km垂直风切变制作强对流潜势联合概率预报产品。通过对北京地区近年寒潮和强对流天气的预报检验表明：寒潮预警信号联合概率方法，当预报概率达到10%及以上时，实况就有可能达寒潮蓝色预警信号的级别；此方法对北京西北部的预报性能较好，其次为北京的东南部地区；对达到蓝色预警信号标准的区域具有较高的预报命中率，但对达黄色预警信号级别的区域，漏报率较高。强对流潜势联合概率方法的空报率较高，当预报概率达90%-100%时，实况才有可能出现强对流；与局地强对流相比，全市性强对流天气的高概率预报区域较为集中。
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| 关 键 词： | 集合预报 联合概率 寒潮 强对流 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-06-27 |
Application of joint probability method in severe weather forecast in Beijing |
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| Zong-yu FU,Bo YU,Hao JING,Bin JI,Xuan ZHOU,Qing-chang QIN,Jia DU,Sang LI.Application of joint probability method in severe weather forecast in Beijing[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2020,36(5):1-9. |
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| Authors: | Zong-yu FU Bo YU Hao JING Bin JI Xuan ZHOU Qing-chang QIN Jia DU Sang LI |
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| Institution: | Beijing Weather Forecast Center, Beijing 100089 |
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| Abstract: | Based on original ensemble forecast data obtained from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and a joint probability method, we produced two ensemble forecast operational products for severe weather occurring frequently in Beijing, including cold wave in winter and severe convection weather in summer.The joint probability forecast product for the cold wave warning was developed based on air temperature at 2 m and mean winds at 10 m, and that for severe convection was produced using the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and vertical wind shear within 0-6 km.We also evaluated the performance of the joint probability forecast products using the observations during cold wave and severe convection events in Beijing in recent years.The results indicated that when the forecast probability reaches 10% and above, the cold wave can probably reach the level of blue warning signals in real-time.The joint probability forecast product for cold wave performs the best in the northwestern region in Beijing, followed by the southeastern region.In areas with the blue warning signals, the cold wave product has a higher capture rate, while in areas with the yellow warning signals it has a high missing rate.The potential prediction of severe convection events using the joint probability method has a high false alarming ratio.Severe convection events can probably occur in real-time only when the forecast probability reaches 90%-100%.Compared with local severe convection events, areas with high forecast probability correspond to the city-scale severe convection events concentrated over the whole city. |
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| Keywords: | Ensemble forecast Joint probability Cold wave Severe convection |
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