| 1961—2017年辽宁省旱涝急转现象时空演变特征 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 李倩,林毅,于琳琳,王大钧,林蓉,林益同,赵春雨.1961—2017年辽宁省旱涝急转现象时空演变特征[J].气象与环境学报,2020,36(5):33-39. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 李倩 林毅 于琳琳 王大钧 林蓉 林益同 赵春雨 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 沈阳区域气候中心, 辽宁 沈阳 1101662. 东北冷涡研究重点开放实验室, 辽宁 沈阳 1101663. 辽宁省气象服务中心, 辽宁 沈阳 1101664. 辽宁省气象局, 辽宁 沈阳 110001 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 辽宁省气象局科学技术研究课题;夏季东北冷涡移动轨迹客观分析类研究共同资助 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用1961-2017年辽宁省61个气象站逐月降水数据，以5-8月为研究时段建立旱涝急转指数（drought-flood abrupt alternation index，DFAI）序列，采用线性倾向法、趋势分析、阶段性分析、T检验、ArcGIS空间插值等方法对辽宁省降水集中期的旱涝急转现象进行时空特征分析。结果表明：1961-2017年辽宁省降水集中期DFAI总体以-0.7/（10 a）的速率下降，有13 a出现旱转涝，有19 a出现涝转旱；DFAI强度以0.1/（10 a）的速率略呈上升趋势。近57 a，辽宁省旱转涝多发生在20世纪60年代，涝转旱多发生在20世纪70年代和20世纪初之后，1989年出现了涝转旱的突变，发生频率呈增多趋势，1994年又出现旱转涝的突变，发生频率呈减少趋势。典型旱转涝年（2013年），DFAI的高值区分布在中、西部地区；典型涝转旱年（2014年），DFAI绝对值的高值区分布在东北部和中西部地区。DFAI变化率在空间分布上具有明显的中、北部增多，东、西部减少的趋势差异。
|
| 关 键 词： | 降水集中期 旱涝急转指数 突变 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-08-16 |
Characteristics of spatio-temporal variation of abrupt alternation of drought and flood in Liaoning province during precipitation concentration period from 1961 to 2017 |
| |
| Qian LI,Yi LIN,Lin-lin YU,Da-jun WANG,Rong LIN,Yi-tong LIN,Chun-yu ZHAO.Characteristics of spatio-temporal variation of abrupt alternation of drought and flood in Liaoning province during precipitation concentration period from 1961 to 2017[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2020,36(5):33-39. |
| |
| Authors: | Qian LI Yi LIN Lin-lin YU Da-jun WANG Rong LIN Yi-tong LIN Chun-yu ZHAO |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Shenyang Regional Climate Center, Shenyang 110166, China2. Key Opening Laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research, Shenyang 110166, China3. Meteorological Service Center of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110166, China4. Liaoning Province Meteorological Service, Shenyang 110001, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the monthly precipitation data from 61 national weather stations during 1961-2017 in Liaoning province, the characteristics of spatio-temporal variation of abrupt alternation of drought and flood during precipitation concentration period were analyzed using the linear tendency, trend analysis, stage analysis, sliding t-test curve, and ArcGIS spatial interpolation methods, in which the stage from May to August was selected as the research time to establish a sequence of drought-flood abrupt alternation index (DFAI).The results show that the DFAI of precipitation in Liaoning province during the precipitation period from 1961 to 2017 decreases at a rate of -0.7 per decade, with thirteen years appearing drought-to-flood, and nineteen years appearing flood-to-drought.The intensity of DFAI shows a slight upward trend at a rate of 0.1 per decade.In recent 57 years, the drought-to-flood mostly occurs in 1960s, and flood-to-drought mostly occurs in 1970s and after 2000s.The first abrupt point appears in 1989.After 1989, the intensity of DFAI shows an increasing trend.Another abrupt point appears in 1994, with a decreasing trend.In a typical drought-to-flood year (2013), the high-value area of DFAI is distributed in the central and western regions.In the typical flood-to-drought year (2014), the high-value areas of the absolute value of DFAI are distributed in the northeast and central and western regions.The spatial distribution of the rate of change in DFAI shows an obvious difference, i.e., increasing in the middle and north, and decreasing in the east and west. |
| |
| Keywords: | Precipitation concentration period Drought-flood abrupt alternation index Mutation |
| 本文献已被 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象与环境学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象与环境学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
