| 1960-2011年洞庭湖区年降水量变化特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄菊梅,邹用昌,彭嘉栋,蔡海朝,覃鸿.1960-2011年洞庭湖区年降水量变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(6):81-86. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄菊梅 邹用昌 彭嘉栋 蔡海朝 覃鸿 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.洞庭湖气候中心，湖南 岳阳 414000；2.岳阳市气象局，湖南 岳阳 414000；3.湖南省气候中心，湖南 长沙 410119；4.娄底市气象局，湖南 娄底 410400 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF201205）和湖南省气象局重点课题（201202）共同资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 以洞庭湖区24个气象站1960-2011年的降水量资料为基础数据，利用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、小波分析等方法分析了洞庭湖区年降水量的变化特征，并采用正交分解函数EOF、旋转正交分解函数REOF计算了洞庭湖区年尺度的标准化降水指数（SPI），分析了洞庭湖区的旱涝时空分布特征。结果表明：洞庭湖区年降水量空间上由北向南逐渐增加，时间上没有显著变化趋势。1963年洞庭湖年降水量发生突变。洞庭湖区年降水量存在6a、9a和16-17a振荡周期。洞庭湖区旱涝频繁，极端气候事件有增加的趋势。洞庭湖区年降水量在空间上具有较好的一致性，为普遍干旱或洪涝，但也存在南北反相变化即南部干旱北部洪涝或南部洪涝北部干旱的特点。洞庭湖区年降水量存在南部、西北部和中部3个异常气候区。
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| 关 键 词： | style="font-size: 12pt font-family: 宋体 mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN mso-bidi-language: 周期变化" target="_blank">AR-SA">周期变化 突变 旱涝 |
Variation characteristics of annual precipitation from 1960 to 2011 in Dongting Lake area |
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| HUANG Ju-mei,ZOU Yong-chang,PENG Jia-dong,CAI Hai-chao,QIN Hong.Variation characteristics of annual precipitation from 1960 to 2011 in Dongting Lake area[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2013,29(6):81-86. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Ju-mei ZOU Yong-chang PENG Jia-dong CAI Hai-chao QIN Hong |
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| Institution: | 1＇2 (1. Dongfing Lake Climate Center, Yueyang 414000, China; 2. Yueyang Meteorological Service, Yueyang 414000, China; 3. Hu＇nan Climate Center, Changsha 410119, China; 4. Loudi Meteorological Service, Loudi 417000, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the precipitation data at 24 weather stations from 1960 to 2011 in Donting Lake area, the annu- M precipitation variation was analyzed by methods of a climatic trend rate, a Mann-Kendall test and a wavelet anal- ysis. Annum SPI（ standard precipitation index） was calculated by methods of an EOF （ empirical orthogonal func- tion ）and a REOF（ rotated empirical orthogonal function）, and the temporal and spatial distributions of drought and flood were discussed. The results show that the annual precipitation increases from south to north on spatial scale in Dongting Lake area, while its trend is not significant on temporal scale. An abrupt change of annual precipitation appears in 1963. There are 6 years ,9 years, and 16-17 years precipitation oscillation cycles in Dongting Lake area. Drought and flood are frequent and extreme weather events are in increasing trends in the study area. The annual precipitation has good consistency on spatial scale,i, e. general drought or flood. But there are also cases in which it is drought in the south and flood in the north and vice verse. There are the south, northwest and middle areas of abnormal climate regions for annual precipitation in Dongting Lake area. |
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| Keywords: | Oscillation period Abrupt change Drought and flood |
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