| 基于MOS方法的风向预测方案对比研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 曾晓青,赵声蓉,段云霞.基于MOS方法的风向预测方案对比研究[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(6):140-144. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曾晓青 赵声蓉 段云霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.国家气象中心，北京 100081； 2.沈阳市气象局，辽宁 沈阳 110168 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家公益性行业专（GYHY201106010,GYHY201106034）和国家自然科学基金（41105064）共同资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 基于MOS方法的数值预报产品释用技术是要素预测较好手段，风向的释用预测方案一般采用标量式的释用预测方案，效果并不理想。本文给出一种基于MOS方法的风向矢量预测方案，利用相关系数和逐步回归方法分别得到u风和v风在不同站点和不同时效的风向模型，根据模型预测u风和v风合成风向。试验选择风向矢量、风向标量和模式的直接输出三种方案进行对比。试验选择T639模式逐日多个物理量观测场，其中建模样本选择2008-2012年每年5月15日至9月15日的数据，验证样本选择2012年6月1-30日的数据，数值试验预测北京地区20个站点未来4个时次的定点定时风向。结果表明：基于MOS方法的风向矢量预测方案12、24、36h和48h的准确率比基于MOS的风向标量观测方案的各时效准确率分别提高了85.0%、26.3%、113.0%和19.9%，比模式直接输出结果方案的各时效准确率分别提高了35.3%、20.2%、43.6%和21.0%。总体来看，基于MOS方法的风向矢量预测方案在风向方面有较好的预测能力。对于个别站点，可能对因子模型的估计不理想或风向变化较为频繁，导致预测难度较大。
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| 关 键 词： | style="font-size: 12pt font-family: 宋体 mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN mso-bidi-language: 风向预测" target="_blank">AR-SA">风向预测 多元回归 矢量预测法 |
Comparison of wind direction forecast schemes based on MOS method |
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| ZENG Xiao-qing,ZHAO Sheng-rongI DUAN Yun-xia.Comparison of wind direction forecast schemes based on MOS method[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2013,29(6):140-144. |
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| Authors: | ZENG Xiao-qing ZHAO Sheng-rongI DUAN Yun-xia |
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| Institution: | 1.National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China; 2. Shenyang meteorological Service, Shenyang 110168, China |
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| Abstract: | A numerical forecast product explanation technology by a model output statistics （MOS）method was a good measure of element forecast. Wind direction was general explained by a scalar method, while it is not perfect. A vector method of wind direction forecast was set up by the MOS method. Wind direction models of u wind and v wind in the different stations for different time validity were established by methods of a correlation analysis and a regression analysis. The composite wind direction of u wind and v wind was predicted by the models. Three schemes were compared, including the vector method, scalar method and model output method. Wind direction in the 20 weather stations and at the four times was predicted based on daily observational fields of many physical el- ements from T639 model. The data from May 15 to September 15 during 2008-2012 were used to build the model, and those on June 1 to 30,2012 were used to test the sample. The results show that the accuracy rates of wind di- rection for 12 hours,24 hours,36 hours and 48 hours are higher from the vector method than from the scalar meth- od,and they are increased by 14. 8% ,6.2%, 17. 1% and 4. 3% respectively. The accuracy rates for these hours forecasts are increased by 8.4% ,5.0% ,9.8% and 4. 5% compared with the results from model output. In gener- al, the vector method is the best among three methods. It is difficult to forecast for a certain station because unrea- sonable estimation for the model or frequent wind direction change. |
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| Keywords: | Wind direction forecast Multiple regression Vector prediction method |
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