| 基于高分辨率模拟数据RCP4.5情景下的华中区域气候变化预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 王苗,刘敏,任永建.基于高分辨率模拟数据RCP4.5情景下的华中区域气候变化预估[J].气象与环境学报,2021,37(3):65-72. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王苗 刘敏 任永建 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉区域气候中心, 湖北 武汉 430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划变化环境下流域超标准洪水及其综合应对关键技术研究与示范项目(2018YFC1508001);湖北省气象局科技发展基金(2021Q05);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201821) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于RegCM4.4高分辨率区域气候模式数据和华中区域1986—2005年逐日气象观测资料，在对模式模拟性能检验的基础上，对中国华中区域未来不同时期、1.5℃和2℃温升阈值下气候变化进行预估。结果表明：模拟结果能较准确反映出区域气温、降水年内变化特征及空间分布特征；与观测值相比，气温模拟值偏低、降水模拟值偏大；与1986—2005年相比，未来RCP4.5温室气体排放情景下2020—2098年中国华中区域气温增幅为2.1℃，且以0.3℃/10 a的趋势增加，降水量无明显变化趋势；远期（2080—2098年）气温将上升2.88℃，降水将增加7.58%，均高于近期（2020—2035年）和中期（2046—2065年）；1.5℃温升情景下华中区域气温上升1.22℃，降水增加1.93%；2℃温升情景下，华中区域气温上升1.36℃，降水增加3.57%。
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| 关 键 词： | 高分辨率区域模式 温升情景 预估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-03-31 |
Projection of climate change over Centre China by high-resolution simulation data under RCP4.5 scenario |
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| Miao WANG,Min LIU,Yong-jian REN.Projection of climate change over Centre China by high-resolution simulation data under RCP4.5 scenario[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2021,37(3):65-72. |
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| Authors: | Miao WANG Min LIU Yong-jian REN |
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| Institution: | Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data from the high-resolution RegCM4.4 (Regional Climate Model version 4.4) and the daily meteorological observations from 1986-2005, the climate change in the future in Central China was estimated under the temperature rising threshold of 1.5℃ and 2℃.The model simulation performance was tested.The results show that the simulation results can accurately reflect the annual variation and spatial distribution characteristics of regional air temperature and precipitation.Compared with the observed values, the simulated values of temperature are lower and the simulated values of precipitation are larger.Compared with 1986-2005, under the future RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario, the increase of air temperature in Central China during 2020-2098 is 2.1℃, and the increasing trend is 0.3℃/10 a, while the precipitation trend has no significant change.The long-term (2080-2098) temperature will rise by 2.88℃, and the precipitation will increase by 7.58%, which are both higher than the recent (2020-2035) and medium-term (2046-2065) 1.5℃ temperature rise scenarios in Central China, where the temperature will rise by 1.22℃, and the precipitation will increase by 1.93%.Under the 2℃ temperature rise scenario, the temperature in Central China increases by 1.36℃, and the precipitation increases by 3.57%. |
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| Keywords: | High-resolution regional model Temperature increasing scenario Projection |
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