| 阜新地区东北冷涡多模式降水预报检验 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张旭,孙宝利,白佳宁,张丹梅,孙可,杨晓彤,赵振宇,宁喜龙.阜新地区东北冷涡多模式降水预报检验[J].气象与环境学报,2021,37(3):19-24. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张旭 孙宝利 白佳宁 张丹梅 孙可 杨晓彤 赵振宇 宁喜龙 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 阜新市气象局, 辽宁 阜新 123000 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 辽宁省阜新市气象局2019年科研专项(FX201905) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了评估欧洲数值中心全球模式（ECMWF）、中国全球模式（GRAPES）和美国全球模式（NCEP_GFS）对东北冷涡降水的24 h预报性能，提高数值模式在阜新的预报能力，为模式物理参数方案的选择和调整提供客观依据，利用2019年5—8月降水产品对阜新市两个国家级观测站阜蒙县站和彰武县站进行晴雨、一般性降水和分量级降水检验，以及平均绝对误差和平均误差检验。结果表明：ECMWF模式降水预报要好于其他两种模式，冷涡发展期和成熟期ECMWF产品TS评分较高，衰减期则较低。从平均绝对误差来看，阜蒙县站5—8月ECMWF误差最小，GRAPES和NCEP_GFS预报效果不稳定；彰武县站ECMWF并无明显优势，5—6月GRAPES预报能力最强，7—8月NCEP_GFS预报能力最强。分析平均误差可知，三种模式对阜蒙县的降水预报偏弱，对彰武县的降水预报只在6月偏强。在大雨及以上量级的降水预报上三种模式均偏小，其中ECMWF的TS评分最高为40.2%。三种模式针对阜蒙县的降水TS评分均高于彰武县。
|
| 关 键 词： | 全球模式 东北冷涡 阶段性降水 检验评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-03-27 |
Evaluation of multi-model precipitation forecast of Northeast Cold Vortex in Fuxin |
| |
| Xu ZHANG,Bao-li SUN,Jia-ning BAI,Dan-mei ZHANG,Ke SUN,Xiao-tong YANG,Zhen-yu ZHAO,Xi-long NING.Evaluation of multi-model precipitation forecast of Northeast Cold Vortex in Fuxin[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2021,37(3):19-24. |
| |
| Authors: | Xu ZHANG Bao-li SUN Jia-ning BAI Dan-mei ZHANG Ke SUN Xiao-tong YANG Zhen-yu ZHAO Xi-long NING |
| |
| Institution: | Fuxin Meteorological Service, Fuxin 123000, China |
| |
| Abstract: | This study evaluated forecast performance of the 24-h precipitation induced by Northeast Clod Vortex using the European Center for Mesoscale Weather Forecast (ECMWF) model, the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES), and Global Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP_GFS), in order to improve the prediction capability of numerical models in Fuxin and provide scientific references for the choice and adjustment of physical parameter schemes in models.Using the precipitation products from May to August of 2019, the tests for the accuracy of sunny/rainy weather, general precipitation, and grading precipitation, as well as their mean absolute errors and mean errors were conducted at two national observation stations (Fumeng station and Zhangwu station) in Fuxin.The results showed that the precipitation forecast of the ECMWF model is better than that of the other two models.The TS score of ECMWF products is higher during the cold vortex development period and the mature period and is lower during the decay period.In terms of the mean absolute error, the ECMWF has the smallest error at Fumeng station from May to August, and the forecast performance of GRAPES and NCEP_GFS is unstable.At the Zhangwu station, the ECMWF has no obvious advantage, the GRAPES performs best from May to June, and the NCEP_GFS performs best in July and August.The mean error analysis shows that all three models underestimate precipitation at Fumeng and Zhangwu stations except for an overestimation of precipitation at Zhangwu station in June.All models underestimate the precipitation of heavy rain and above, with the highest TS score of 40.2% from the ECMWF model.Moreover, all three models have higher precipitation TS scores at Fumeng station than Zhangwu station. |
| |
| Keywords: | Global model Northeast cold vortex Periodic precipitation Test evaluation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象与环境学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象与环境学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
