| 循环同化雷达资料对一次飑线系统临近预报的改进作用 |
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| 引用本文： | 董琪如,邱晓滨,王莹,王泽林,李季,梁绵.循环同化雷达资料对一次飑线系统临近预报的改进作用[J].气象与环境学报,2021,37(3):1-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董琪如 邱晓滨 王莹 王泽林 李季 梁绵 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 天津市海洋气象重点实验室, 天津 3000742. 天津市气象科学研究所, 天津 3000743. 天津市气象台, 天津 3000744. 中国飞行试验研究院, 陕西 西安 7100895. 山东省气象局大气探测技术保障中心, 山东 济南 2500316. 陕西省气象台, 陕西 西安 710014 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1510002);国家自然科学基金(41675060);环渤海区域科技协同创新基金重点项目(QYXM201901);天津市气象局重点项目(202002zdxm01);天津市气象局一般项目(201901ybxm01) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用WRF（Weather Research Forecast）模式及其3D-Var（Three-Dimensional Variational assimilation）变分系统，针对2017年7月7日一次飑线进行了雷达资料的循环同化敏感性试验。结果表明：以循环同化雷达资料至飑线成熟期时刻的试验预报效果最好，主要原因在于预报的低层西北冷空气较强，从而导致较强的低层切变，再配合强的热力不稳定条件从而使飑线的发展得以维持。通过七组试验对比表明，对于单次雷达资料，同化的时机更为重要。同化飑线成熟阶段的雷达反射率，对低层热力层结有改善作用，为飑线发展提供了不稳定能量；对于循环同化，通过观测的影响和模式自身的热动力调整，对流场也有较好的修正作用，为对流系统的持续发展提供了充分的动力条件。
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| 关 键 词： | 循环同化 雷达资料 飑线 临近预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-01-13 |
Improvement of nowcasting for a squall line using cycling assimilation radar data |
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| Qi-ru DONG,Xiao-bin QIU,Ying WANG,Ze-lin WANG,Ji LI,Mian LIANG.Improvement of nowcasting for a squall line using cycling assimilation radar data[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2021,37(3):1-11. |
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| Authors: | Qi-ru DONG Xiao-bin QIU Ying WANG Ze-lin WANG Ji LI Mian LIANG |
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| Institution: | 1. Tianjin Key Laboratory for Oceanic Meteorology, Tianjin 300074, China2. Tianjin Institute of Meteorological Science, Tianjin 300074, China3. Tianjin Meteorological Observatory, Tianjin 300074, China4. Chinese Flight Test Establishment, Xi'an 710089, China5. Atmospheric Sounding and Technical Support Center, Shandong Meteorological Service, Ji'nan 250031, China6. Shaanxi Meteorological Observatory, Xi'an 710014, China |
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| Abstract: | Using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model and the Three-Dimensional Variational (3DVar) assimilation system, numerical sensitivity experiments were conducted to examine the performance of using radar data cycling assimilation to predict a squall line event in the surrounding areas of Beijing on July 7, 2017.Among the experiments, the best prediction occurred when the squall line reached the mature period with the use of the cycling assimilation of radar data.The main reason is that with the use of the cycling assimilation of radar data, the forecasted low-level northwesterly cold air is relatively strong, which leads to strong low-level wind shears.This is favorable for the maintaining of the squall line's development, in conjunction with strong thermal instability conditions.The comparison of 7 sensitivity experiments showed that for single radar data, the timing of assimilation is more important.The assimilation of radar reflectivity data at the mature stage of the squall line can improve the low-level thermal stratification and provide unstable energy for the development of the squall line.For cycling assimilation, the flow fields can be well modified through the observation influence and the thermodynamic adjustment of the model itself, which provides sufficient dynamic conditions for the continuous development of the convective system. |
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| Keywords: | Cycling assimilation Radar data Squall line Nowcasting |
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