| 基于NCEP CFSv2模式的黑龙江省夏季降水预测研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 班晋,王波,李永生,赵佳莹.基于NCEP CFSv2模式的黑龙江省夏季降水预测研究[J].气象与环境学报,2019,35(6):21-27. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 班晋 王波 李永生 赵佳莹 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 黑龙江省气候中心,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030;黑龙江省气候中心,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030;黑龙江省气候中心,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030;黑龙江省气候中心,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中央引导地方科技发展专项"强厄尔尼诺现象对黑龙江省极端天气气候影响及其中长期预报方法研究"（ZY18C12）和黑龙江省龙云气象科技有限责任公司气象院士工作站开放研究基金面上项目"CFSv2模式对黑龙江省月预测及与DERF2.0模式对比"（YSMS201706）共同资助。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 基于1982-2017年NCEP_CFSv2（NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2）模式预测资料对黑龙江省夏季降水进行降尺度预测。通过分析黑龙江省夏季降水与同期环流因子的关系、模式对关键区环流因子的预测，选取模式模拟与再分析资料相关较好、黑龙江降水实况与再分析资料关系较好的环流因子作为预测因子，结合最优子集回归法筛选因子，建立降尺度预测模型，最后采用交叉检验法进行预测效果检验和独立样本预测。结果表明：模式降尺度预测与实况的距平符号-致率为69%，6 a独立样本预测中有5 a预测正确，优于目前的业务预测效果。进-步研究发现，在模式能够准确预测环流因子的情况下，模式降尺度可以较好地预测黑龙江省夏季降水的趋势。此外，模式降尺度在拉尼娜年预测效果较好。
|
| 关 键 词： | 夏季降水 降尺度 环流因子 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-11-08 |
Prediction of summer precipitation in Heilongjiang province based on the NCEP_CFSv2 model |
| |
| BAN Jin,WANG Bo,LI Yong-sheng,ZHAO Jia-ying.Prediction of summer precipitation in Heilongjiang province based on the NCEP_CFSv2 model[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2019,35(6):21-27. |
| |
| Authors: | BAN Jin WANG Bo LI Yong-sheng ZHAO Jia-ying |
| |
| Institution: | Heilongjiang Climate Center, Harbin 150030, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The downscaling prediction of summer precipitation in Heilongjiang province was conducted using the model outputs of the National Centers for Environment Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2 (NCEP_CFSv2) from 1982 to 2017.We first analyzed the relationship between summer precipitation and circulation factors in Heilongjiang province and the prediction of circulation factors in key zones,and then selected the circulation factors that have a good correlation between simulation and reanalysis data and between precipitation observations and reanalysis data as prediction factors.We further examined those factors using an optimal subset regression method,established a downscaling prediction model,and finally conducted the prediction performance validation and independent sample prediction using a cross-check method.The results showed that 69% of model downscaling prediction is consistent with the actual anomaly sign.The 6-year independent sample prediction is correct for 5 years,which is better than current operation forecasting results.The model downscaling technique can well predict the trend of summer precipitation in Heilongjiang province once circulation factors could be predicted accurately.In addition,the model downscaling prediction performs better in La Nina years. |
| |
| Keywords: | Summer precipitation Downscaling Circulation factor |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象与环境学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象与环境学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
