| 基于AHP的天津泥石流灾害评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 段丽瑶,熊明明,李大鸣,刘训平,汪靖,李培彦.基于AHP的天津泥石流灾害评估[J].气象与环境学报,2019,35(6):109-116. |
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| 作者姓名： | 段丽瑶 熊明明 李大鸣 刘训平 汪靖 李培彦 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津市气象台,天津 300074;天津市气候中心,天津 300074;天津市气象台,天津 300074;天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津 300072;天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津 300072;天津市气象科学研究所,天津 300074 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局关键技术集成与推广项目（CMAGJ2015M03）、国家重点研发计划（2018YFA0606302）、天津市科技计划项目（17ZXCXSF00060）和国家自然科学基金项目（41675046）共同资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用天津市蓟州区降水、地形地貌、人口、地质灾害、DEM数字高程数据等资料，以天津北部蓟州区为研究对象，采用无结构不规则网格设计方法对研究区域进行网格划分，应用层次分析法（AHP）确定直接雨量和间接雨量、水流流速、地形地貌、人口密度、发生频率等泥石流危险因子权重，建立天津泥石流危险度评估模型。利用模型对蓟州区2011-2018年11次强降雨过程进行泥石流危险度评估。结果表明：过程降雨量最大、降雨最为集中的2016年7月20日泥石流危险度最高，雨势平稳的2018年8月12-14日危险度最低；蓟州区2012年7月22日出现的双安泥石流以及2018年7月24日出现的小型山体崩塌，在模型对应的区域内均显示有泥石流风险存在，表明模型对泥石流具有较好的评估能力，可应用于业务和服务中。采用广义极值分布函数计算了蓟州区不同重现期1 h和12 h雨量，利用泥石流危险度评估模型模拟不同重现期雨量的泥石流风险，研究结果可为相关部门和行业提供决策参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 泥石流 层次分析法 危险度 重现期 灾害评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-08-09 |
Assessment of local debris flow disaster in Tianjin based on AHP method |
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| DUAN Li-yao,XIONG Ming-ming,LI Da-ming,LIU Xun-ping,WANG Jing,LI Pei-yan.Assessment of local debris flow disaster in Tianjin based on AHP method[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2019,35(6):109-116. |
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| Authors: | DUAN Li-yao XIONG Ming-ming LI Da-ming LIU Xun-ping WANG Jing LI Pei-yan |
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| Institution: | 1. Tianjin Municipal Meteorological Observatory, Tianjin 300074, China;2. Tianjin Climate Center, Tianjin 300074, China;3. Key Laboratory of Harbor and Engineering of Ministry of Education, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;4. Institute of Tianjin Meteorological Science, Tianjin 300074, China |
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| Abstract: | By utilizing data of precipitation,topography and geomorphology,population,geological disasters and digital elevation mode (DEM),Jizhou district,located in the north of Tianjin,was taken as the research area in this paper to conduct study on assessment of the hazardous degree of debris flow disasters in Tianjin.More specifically,the research area was divided into the grids using the approach of non-structural irregular design,and then the weights of the debris flow risk factors including the direct and indirect amount of rainfall,flow velocity,topography and geomorphology,population density,frequency of occurrence of debris flow were determined,and the debris flow risk degree model (DFRDM) of Tianjin was established based on the analytic hierarchy process method(AHP).This model was used to evaluate the hazardous degree of the debris flow disasters for the eleven strong rainstorm processes over Jizhou district during 2011-2018.The results show that the rainfall process on July 20,2016 with the largest rainfall amount and concentration has the highest risk of debris flow,and the risk for stable rainfall process on August 12-14,2018 is the lowest.Furthermore,the debris flow occurring over "Shuang'an" Village on July 22,2012 and the small landslides on July 24,2018 over Jizhou district,are both captured by the DFRDM model,indicating that this model has a good assessment ability for debris flow and can be applied to real-time operation and service.Moreover,the generalized extreme value distribution function was used to calculate the 1-hour and 12-hour amount of precipitation in different reoccurrence periods of Jizhou district,and the DFRDM was then used to estimate the debris flow risks for different levels of precipitation,which can provide useful reference for the relevant decision-making departments. |
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| Keywords: | Debris flow Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) Risk degrees Recurrence periods Disaster assessment |
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