| 2013—2019年宁波市高温热浪对中暑的滞后影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 鹿文涵,谷少华,孙仕强,张程明,朱宪春.2013—2019年宁波市高温热浪对中暑的滞后影响[J].气象与环境学报,2022,38(1):106-112. |
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| 作者姓名： | 鹿文涵 谷少华 孙仕强 张程明 朱宪春 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 宁波市海曙区气象局, 浙江 宁波 3151532. 宁波市疾病预防控制中心, 浙江 宁波 3150103. 宁波市气象局, 浙江 宁波 315012 |
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| 基金项目： | 宁波市科技公益类计划项目(2019C50003);宁波市自然科学基金项目(2019A610379);宁波市气象科技计划项目(NBQX2019001B);海曙区科技计划项目(201804F029)共同资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 高温热浪日趋严重，给居民身体健康带来了重大的威胁。采用2013-2019年6-9月逐日气象观测数据及同期中暑病例数据为基础资料，重点利用分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）定量分析了宁波市高温热浪对中暑的滞后影响。结果表明：高温热浪（不分等级）引起中暑的单日相对危险度RR值（95%CI）在发生当天达到最大值；累计RR值（95% CI）在滞后0-4 d达到最大值；不同等级高温热浪（一般高温热浪、危害高温热浪和强危害高温热浪）引起中暑的最大单日RR值（95% CI）均出现在发生当天，最大累计RR值（95% CI）都发生在滞后0-3 d；高温热浪引起中暑的单日及累计RR值（95% CI）低龄组（< 65岁）明显小于高龄组（≥ 65岁），随着高温热浪等级的增加，引起中暑的单日及累计RR值（95% CI）逐渐增高。
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| 关 键 词： | 高温热浪 中暑 分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM) 相对危险度 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-07-28 |
Quantitative analysis of the lagged effects of heat-wave on heatstroke in Ningbo from 2013 to 2019 |
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| LU Wen-han,GU Shao-hua,SUN Shi-qiang,ZHANG Cheng-ming,ZHU Xian-chun.Quantitative analysis of the lagged effects of heat-wave on heatstroke in Ningbo from 2013 to 2019[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2022,38(1):106-112. |
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| Authors: | LU Wen-han GU Shao-hua SUN Shi-qiang ZHANG Cheng-ming ZHU Xian-chun |
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| Institution: | 1. NingboHaishu District Meteorological Service, Ningbo 315153, China2. Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China3. Ningbo Meteorological Service, Ningbo 315012, China |
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| Abstract: | Heat-wave has been becoming more serious,posing a major threat to residents′health.In this paper,the lagged effects of heat-wave on heatstroke were investigated based on the statistical characteristics of meteorological and heatstroke data from June to September during 2013—2019 in Ningbo by using distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM).The results show that the one-day relative risk(RR)value(95%CI)of heatstroke caused by heat-waves(no hierarchy)reaches the maximum value(P>0.05)on the first day,and the cumulative RR value(95%CI)reaches the maximum value(P>0.05)for the lag of 0—4 day.The maximum one-day RR value(95%CI)of heatstroke caused by different levels of heat-waves including general,hazardous and severe hazardous heat-waves appears on the first day,and the maximum cumulative RR value(95%CI)appears on the lag of 0—3 day.In addition,The one-day and cumulative RR values(95%CI s)of heatstroke caused by heat-wave in the young group(<65 years old)are significantly lower than in the elderly group(≥65 years old).With the heat-wave level enhancing,the one-day and cumulative RR values(95%CI s)increase gradually. |
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| Keywords: | Heat-wave Heatstroke Distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM) Relative risk |
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