| 海南岛天然橡胶林台风灾害风险评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄海静,杨再强,王春乙,张京红,张亚杰,张明洁.海南岛天然橡胶林台风灾害风险评价[J].气象与环境学报,2019,35(5):130-136. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄海静 杨再强 王春乙 张京红 张亚杰 张明洁 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏 南京210044;海南省气候中心,海南 海口570203;南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏 南京,210044;海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海南 海口,570203;海南省气候中心,海南 海口,570203 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（41675113）和海南省气象局青年基金（HNQXQN201501）共同资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 台风灾害是海南橡胶种植中影响最为严重和主要的灾害，为对其风险进行定量评估，本研究以海南岛天然橡胶林为研究对象，基于灾害风险评估理论，融合橡胶台风灾害、社会经济和气象数据，建立橡胶台风灾害危险性、暴露性和脆弱性评价模型，利用加权综合评价法开展天然橡胶林台风灾害风险评价。结果表明：海南橡胶种植高风险区位于沿海台风发生频繁市县，其中琼海、文昌、海口为海南岛橡胶灾害风险最高的地区，其次陵水、万宁、琼中、屯昌、东方等地区灾害风险也较高。风险最低地区位于中部五指山、保亭、乐东、三亚等地区，评价结果与实际灾害发生以及种植情况相符。评价结果表明，台风灾害危险性是风险的主导因子，但非单一决定因子，种植技术、品种改良等措施对脆弱性降低起到了较好的促进作用。评价结果可为橡胶林避灾防灾及种植布局提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 橡胶林 台风 灾害风险 评价 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-10-30 |
Evaluation of typhoon disaster risk for Hevea brasiliensis in Hainan island |
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| HUANG Hai-jing,YANG Zai-qiang,WANG Chun-yi,ZHANG Jing-hong,ZHANG Ya-jie,ZHANG Ming-jie.Evaluation of typhoon disaster risk for Hevea brasiliensis in Hainan island[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2019,35(5):130-136. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Hai-jing YANG Zai-qiang WANG Chun-yi ZHANG Jing-hong ZHANG Ya-jie ZHANG Ming-jie |
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| Institution: | 1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;2. Hainan Climate Center, Haikou 570203, China;3. Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province, Haikou 570203, China |
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| Abstract: | Typhoon disaster is the most serious disaster for rubber planting in Hainan province.This study took Hainan island,a major natural rubber producing area in China,as the research object.Based on the disaster risk assessment theory,the risk,exposure and vulnerability assessment model of rubber typhoon disaster was established combining rubber typhoon disaster with social economy and meteorological data.The weighted comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the risk of natural rubber forest disaster.Results show that the high-risk areas of rubber planting in Hainan province locate in the coastal cities and counties where frequent typhoons occur,among which,Qionghai,Wenchang,and Haikou are the areas with the highest risk of rubber disaster in Hainan island,and Lingshui,Wanning,Qiongzhong,Tunchang,and Dongfang are also the areas with higher risk of disaster.The areas with the lowest risk are in Wuzhishan,Baoting,Ledong,and Sanya.The evaluation results are consistent with the actual disaster and planting conditions.The evaluation results show that the dangerous of typhoon disaster is the main factor of risk,but it is not the single determinant,planting technology,cultivar improvement and other technical measures play an important role in reducing the vulnerability.The evaluation results can provide a basis for preventing disaster and planting layout of rubber forests. |
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| Keywords: | Natural rubber forest Typhoon Disaster risk Evaluation |
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