| 基于4种高分辨率模式的辽宁省雷达回波预报邻域检验结果对比 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘静,陈传雷,王瀛,才奎志,任川,董巍.基于4种高分辨率模式的辽宁省雷达回波预报邻域检验结果对比[J].气象与环境学报,2022,38(5):25-33. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘静 陈传雷 王瀛 才奎志 任川 董巍 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所, 辽宁沈阳 1101662. 辽宁省气象灾害监测预警中心, 辽宁沈阳 1101663. 辽宁省气象信息中心, 辽宁沈阳 1101664. 中国气象局气象干部培训学院辽宁分院, 辽宁沈阳 110166 |
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| 基金项目： | 东北冷涡研究重点开放基金课题(2020SYIAE05);2019年中国气象局预报员专项“高分辨率模式雷达回波预报能力检验分析”(CMAYBY2019-025) |
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| 摘 要： | 选取2017—2018年6—9月辽宁省不同降水性质, 具有2种不同特征的20次天气过程个例, 应用模糊检验邻域法中的分数技巧评分(Fraction Skill Score, FSS), 评估华东模式、华北模式、GRAPES_3km模式和睿图东北模式对辽宁省中小尺度系统的预报能力。结果表明: 区域性降水过程和局地性降水过程雷达回波强度越小, 邻域半径越大, 高分辨率模式预报技巧越高。当雷达回波大于30 dBz时, 各高分辨率模式对局地性降水的雷达回波预报FSS评分均较高。当邻域半径为3 km时, 区域性降水过程中, 华北模式预报技巧在各级别雷达回波预报中均高于其他模式, 最大FSS差值为0.031。局地性降水过程中, 华东模式预报效果较好, 最大FSS评分为0.127, 表明华东模式预报中小尺度对流系统能力更强。局地性降水过程, 睿图东北模式在08—23时预报时次中, “中间”时次的预报效果优于“两头”时次的预报, 两个时次最大FSS差值为0.121。
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| 关 键 词： | 模式检验 回波预报 邻域法 分数技巧评分 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-01-05 |
Comparison of neighborhood verification of radar echo forecast in Liaoning province using four high-resolution models |
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| Jing LIU,Chuan-lei CHEN,Ying WANG,Kui-zhi CAI,Chuan REN,Wei DONG.Comparison of neighborhood verification of radar echo forecast in Liaoning province using four high-resolution models[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2022,38(5):25-33. |
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| Authors: | Jing LIU Chuan-lei CHEN Ying WANG Kui-zhi CAI Chuan REN Wei DONG |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110166, China2. Liaoning Warning Center of Meteorological Disaster Monitoring, Shenyang 110166, China3. Liaoning Meteorological Information Center, Shenyang 110166, China4. Liaoning Branch of China Meteorological Administration Training Center, Shenyang 110166, China |
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| Abstract: | We selected 20 cases of two types of weather processes with different precipitation properties in Liaoning province from June to September in 2017 and 2018.These cases are used to evaluate the forecast capabilities of the meso- and small-scale systems in Liaoning province with the East China Model, the North China Model, the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES)_3km Model, and the Northeast China Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, based on the Fraction Skill Score (FSS) in the fuzzy test neighborhood method.The results showed that for the regional precipitation process and local precipitation process, the smaller the radar echo intensity is, the larger the neighborhood radius is, and the better the prediction skill of the high-resolution model is.When the radar echo is greater than 30 dBz, the FSS scores of the radar echo prediction for localized precipitation are higher in all high-resolution models.When the neighborhood radius is 3 km, the forecasting skills of the North China Model for all-level radar echo during regional precipitation are better than other models, with a maximum FSS difference being 0.031.In the process of localized precipitation, the East China Model performs better, with a maximum FSS score of 0.127, indicating that the East China Model has a stronger capability to predict small and medium-scale convective systems.For the local precipitation process, among the forecast periods between 08:00 and 23:00 in the Northeast China WRF_3km model, the forecast performs better in the "middle" period than the "beginning and ending" period, with their maximum FSS difference of 0.121. |
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| Keywords: | Model verification Radar echo forecast Neighborhood method Fraction Skill Score (FSS) |
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