| 三种气温预报产品黑龙江省预报效果检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 孟莹莹,李树岭,赵玲,白雪梅,闫敏慧.三种气温预报产品黑龙江省预报效果检验[J].气象与环境学报,2022,38(2):21-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孟莹莹 李树岭 赵玲 白雪梅 闫敏慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 黑龙江省气象台, 黑龙江 哈尔滨 1500302. 哈尔滨市气象台, 黑龙江 哈尔滨 1500283. 黑龙江省气象服务中心, 黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030 |
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| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省气象局科学技术研究项目(HQZD2019002);黑龙江省气象局科学技术研究项目(HQ2017027);黑龙江省气象局科学技术研究项目(HQ2016028) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用T639模式预报产品和黑龙江省83个国家气象站气温实况观测资料，采用最优预报因子方法选取预报因子，应用多元回归方法建立逐站日最高气温和日最低气温的MOS预报方程; 对MOS、中央气象台指导预报（SCMOC）和T639三种气温预报产品的日最高气温和日最低气温预报效果进行对比检验分析，并用EOF方法检验预报与实况的时空变化特征一致性。结果表明: 与实况的时空变化一致性方面，MOS和SCMOC较好，T639略差; 预报效果方面，MOS和SCMOC对日最高气温和日最低气温的2 ℃预报准确率普遍高于T639，MOS的预报准确率在日最高气温方面高于SCMOC，在日最低气温方面低于SCMOC; MOS对T639气温预报产品改善效果明显，尤其对冬季日最低气温的预报改善效果十分显著; MOS较T639气温预报改善效果与T639模式预报效果呈负相关关系，主要表现为，MOS预报改善效果在T639预报准确率低的山区明显优于平原，在春、夏季，预报准确率较低的日最高气温明显优于日最低气温，在冬季，预报准确率较低的日最低气温优于日最高气温; MOS气温预报方法的预报性能较理想，SCMOC对黑龙江省预报难度较大的日最低气温预报效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 气温预报产品 最优预报因子 预报准确率 预报性能 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-11-11 |
Validation of three forecast products of air temperature in Heilongjiang province |
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| Ying-ying MENG,Shu-ling LI,Ling ZHAO,Xue-mei BAI,Min-hui YAN.Validation of three forecast products of air temperature in Heilongjiang province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2022,38(2):21-30. |
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| Authors: | Ying-ying MENG Shu-ling LI Ling ZHAO Xue-mei BAI Min-hui YAN |
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| Institution: | 1. Heilongjiang meteorological Observatory, Harbin 150030, China2. Harbin Meteorological Observatory, Harbin 150028, China3. Heilongjiang Meteorological Service Center, Harbin 150030, China |
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| Abstract: | Using the T639 model forecast products and air temperature observations at 83 national weather stations in Heilongjiang province, we selected forecast factors using an optimal selection method, and established the Model Output Statistics (MOS) prediction equations for daily maximum air temperature (TMAX) and daily minimum air temperature (TMIN) using a multiple regression method.In addition, we comparatively analyzed and validated the forecast performance of TMAX and TMIN from the MOS, the guide forecasts of the Central Meteorological Observatory (SCMOS), and three air temperature forecast products from the T639 model, and examined the consistency of spatiotemporal distribution between the predicted and observed air temperature using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method.The results showed that the MOS and SCMOC perform better in predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of air temperature, while the T639 model performs relatively poorer.The values of 2℃ forecast accurate rate (TT2) for TMAX and TMIN from the MOS and SCMOC are mostly higher than those using the T639 model, and the TT2 values for TMAX/TMIN from the MOS are higher/lower than those from SCMOC.MOS can improve the air temperature forecast from the T639 model, especially for the TMIN forecast in winter.There is a negative correlation between the improvement of MOS relative to the T639 forecast and the performance of the T639 forecast.The MOS's improvement is better over mountain areas with low TT2 predicted by the T639 model than that over plain areas.In spring and summer, the MOS's improvement is better for the TMAX with low TT2 than the TMIN, while in winter, the MOS improvement is better for the TMIN with low TT2 than the TMAX.This MOS air temperature forecast method has a good forecast capability and can be applied to the interpretation and application of other numerical model products.The SCMOC can be used in the TMIN forecast in Heilongjiang province considering its good forecast performance; the TMIN parameter is usually difficult to forecast in Heilongjiang province. |
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| Keywords: | Forecast products of air temperature Optimal forecast factor Prediction accurate rate Forecast capability |
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