| 辽宁暴雨致灾指标及灾害影响预评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩秀君,孙晓巍,李爽,王明华,李广霞,陈宇,王桂春.辽宁暴雨致灾指标及灾害影响预评估[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(6):80-84. |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩秀君 孙晓巍 李爽 王明华 李广霞 陈宇 王桂春 |
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| 作者单位： | 1．沈阳中心气象台，辽宁 沈阳 110166；2．大连市金州区气象局，辽宁 大连 116600 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局关键技术集成与应用项目“灾害性天气决策服务指标及防御策略的推广应用”，公益性行业(气象)科研专项经费项目“东北地区设施农业生产专业天气预报技术研究”(GYHY201206024)共同资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1951-2012年辽宁暴雨过程及暴雨灾情资料，对辽宁暴雨灾害特征及暴雨灾害评估进行分析，并应用统计分析方法，建立暴雨致灾指标与灾害影响预评估的关系。结果表明：1951-2012年辽宁年平均暴雨日数分布为自东南向西北逐渐减少；辽宁暴雨灾害发生频率分布为自中部向西北逐渐增多，灾害发生频率最高的地区为辽宁西部地区，其中朝阳喀左县暴雨灾害发生频率最高，占该站暴雨总次数的73%；辽宁西部等地区暴雨灾害发生频率较高，但降水强度较小，且发生一级和二级暴雨灾害的概率低于其他地区；而除辽西地区外，其他地区暴雨灾害发生频率略低，但降水强度大。辽宁受暴雨灾害影响最大的受灾体为农作物及设施，辽阳地区受灾频率最大，占该地区受灾过程总数的95%以上。辽宁暴雨灾害可划分为暴雨灾害易发区、较易发区和一般易发区。
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| 关 键 词： | 致灾指标 暴雨灾害 影响预评估 决策气象服务 |
Disaster-causing index of rainstorm and pre-assessment of disaster effect in Liaoning province |
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| HAN Xiu-jun,SUN Xiao-wei,LI Shuang,WANG Ming-hua,LI Guang-xia,CHEN Yu,WANG Gui-chun.Disaster-causing index of rainstorm and pre-assessment of disaster effect in Liaoning province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2014,30(6):80-84. |
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| Authors: | HAN Xiu-jun SUN Xiao-wei LI Shuang WANG Ming-hua LI Guang-xia CHEN Yu WANG Gui-chun |
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| Institution: | 1.Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory, Shenyang 110166 China; 2. Jinzhou District of Dalian Meteorological Service, Dalian 116600, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on rainstorm processes and disaster data in Liaoning proince from 1951 to 2012, characteristics of rainstorm disaster and its assessment were analyzed. Relationship between disaster-causing index and assessment of disaster effect was investigate using a statistic analysis method. The?results?show?that the number of annual average rainstorm days in Liaoning province gradually reduces from southeast to northwest during 1951 to 2012. Frequency of rainstorm disaster gradually increases from the middle to northwest, especially in the western Liaoning province, for example, rainstorm disasters account for 73% of total rainstorm events in Kazuo County of Chaoyang. Rainstorm frequency is high and precipitation intensity is weak in the western of Liaoning province, while it is contrary in other areas. Also, probability of rainstorm disaster with the first and second grades is lower in the west than other areas. Effect of rainstorm disaster on crop and its facilities is most significant. Frequency of affected disaster is the highest in Liaoyang area, and it is 95% of total disaster events. Rainstorm disaster can be divided into three grades, i.e. high area, middle area and low area. |
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| Keywords: | Disaster-causing index Rainstorm disaster Pre-assessment of effect Policy decision meteorological service |
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