| 月动力延伸预报500hPa高度场检验及其在重庆月气候预测中降尺度应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐红玉,董新宁,周秀华,覃志年.月动力延伸预报500hPa高度场检验及其在重庆月气候预测中降尺度应用[J].新疆气象,2016,10(3):1-8. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐红玉 董新宁 周秀华 覃志年 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆市气象局气候中心,重庆市气象局气候中心,climate centre of Chongqing,climate centre of Chongqing |
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| 摘 要： | 根据2015年国家气候中心实时下发的第二代月动力延伸模式(DERF2.0)逐日资料和历史回算资料,统计构建不同时间起报的月500hPa高度场格点数据序列,针对重庆2月气温和8月降水量方差和预测难度较大的事实,分别分析2010-2014年逐年1月和7月16日、21日、26日、31日起报的2月和8月500hPa高度场预报场与同期NCEP资料实况场的分布型,结果表明：预测效果低纬好于中高纬,8月总体好于2月；基于上述滚动的500hPa预报场,试验了4个关键区和5种统计降尺度方法,对重庆2010-2015年2月气温和2010-2014年8月降水量进行回报预测和检验结果表明,16日起报的模式场对2月气温有较好的参考价值,配合最好的关键区为本区上空,而降尺度方案中Lamb方法效果最佳,二者结合的预测效果最好；8月降水回报检验表明,虽然8月降水预测效果不如2月气温,但在预测关键区取自定义关键区时,车氏方法的降尺度方案预测效果相对较好。
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| 关 键 词： | DERF2.0 500hPa高度场 检验 统计降尺度 预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 6/6/2016 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 6/6/2016 12:00:00 AM |
Evaluation of DERF2.0 500hPa Data and Statistical Downscaling Forecasting in Chongqing |
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| Institution: | climate centre of Chongqing,climate centre of Chongqing,climate centre of Chongqing,climate centre of Chongqing |
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| Abstract: | Based on latest and historical daily data of National Climate Centre second-generation monthly Dynamic Extended Range Forecast operational system (DERF2.0), monthly 500hPa geopolitical height sequences were built at different initial forecasting time. Focused on the fact that variances of temperature in February and precipitation in August are larger in Chongqing and they were hard to be forecasted correctly, we analyzed the differences between 500hPa geopolitical height field forecasted on 16th, 21th, 26th and 31th in each February and August in 2010-2014 and NCEP data in the same term, the results showed the patterns in the lower latitudes are better than higher ones, and the patterns in February are better than in August totally. Basing on the 500hPa geopolitical height forecasting fields, four key regions and five statistical downscaling methods were tested in February for temperature and in August for precipitation forecasting in Chongqing in 2014-2015. The results indicated model fields forecasted on 16th had better effects for temperature in February and had the best effects with own region as key region and lamb as statistical downscaling method. Although the forecasting effects of precipitation in August were not as good as temperature in February, but user-defined region and Chebysev method in August precipitation forecasting still had better reference value in Chongqing. |
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| Keywords: | DERF2 0 500hPa geopotential height field testing statistical downscaling forecast |
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