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承德初霜冻预报指标分析及其预报方法
引用本文:彭九慧,李树丛,陆倩,杨庆红.承德初霜冻预报指标分析及其预报方法[J].新疆气象,2016,10(3):15-20.
作者姓名:彭九慧  李树丛  陆倩  杨庆红
作者单位:承德市气象局,承德市气象局,承德市气象局,承德市气象局
摘    要:应用常规观测资料与ncep1°×1°再分析资料,对承德市各县区初霜的时空分布特征及南北县区初霜出现时间的稳定性进行了分析,在对117个初霜环流形势分析的基础上,建立了初霜预报的天气概念模型;筛选因子,分县区确立了预报指标;采用概率、指标、数值预报产品相结合的方法及概率区间取值法建立了分县区初霜预报模型;检验表明,该模型对于中重度初霜冻预报准确率可达95%以上,对轻度初霜的预报准确率可达68%以上,无漏报出现。

关 键 词:绝对变率  概念模型  预报指标  初霜指数
收稿时间:2015/3/24 0:00:00
修稿时间:2015/4/21 0:00:00

Chengde early frost forecast index analysis and prediction methods
pengjiuhui,lishucong,luqian and yangqinghong.Chengde early frost forecast index analysis and prediction methods[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2016,10(3):15-20.
Authors:pengjiuhui  lishucong  luqian and yangqinghong
Institution:Chengde City Bureau of Meteorology,Chengde City Bureau of Meteorology,Chengde City Bureau of Meteorology,Chengde City Bureau of Meteorology
Abstract:Application of the conventional observation data and the ncep1 ° x 1 ° reanalysis data, analyzes the chengde city counties of the first frost time and space distribution characteristics and the north-south county first frost in the stability of the time;Based on the circulation analysis of 117 first-frost case, the conceptual prediction model of first-frost is set up; filter factor, points counties established early frost forecast indicators; Using method of probability and index and combining the numerical forecast products and probability interval value method established early frost forecast model for every counties ; Test shows that the model for the moderate or severe early frost forecast accuracy can reach more than 95%, the accuracy of forecasting weak first frost can reach more than 68%, no omission.
Keywords:Absolute change rate  The conceptual model  Forecast indicators  Index of the first frost  
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