| 近54年阿勒泰地区夏季极端降水事件气候特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 博尔楠,恰里哈尔,阿依敏,别克达吾列提,宋佳.近54年阿勒泰地区夏季极端降水事件气候特征[J].新疆气象,2016,10(4):39-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 博尔楠 恰里哈尔 阿依敏 别克达吾列提 宋佳 |
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| 作者单位： | 阿勒泰地区气象局,富蕴县气象局,福海县气象局,吉木乃县气象局,塔城地区气象局 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用阿勒泰地区7个国家级气象站近54a(1960～2013年)夏季(6～8月)的日有效降水量（20～20h降水量≥0.1mm）资料，用WMO推荐的百分位法计算了全地区过去54a夏季极端强降水的阈值、进一步分析了当地夏季时空分布特征及变化趋势，结果表明：阿勒泰地区夏季极端强降水阈值呈西部、南部小,北部、东部大,并且空间异常分布特征如下: 夏季以及夏季各月的极端强降水日数和强度均可总结出5种最主要模型；极端强降水量可总结出8种最主要模型；并且通过时间标准化序列分析各种模型都有对应的降水日数、量级、强度明显偏多（强）和偏少（弱）的时段。日数、量级、强度近54a来,除吉木乃略有下降以外,其余各县（市）均为增长趋势,尤其是北部、东部地区.同时上述三指标存在着显著的年代际和年纪尺度的周期变化,上世纪90年代和2010年至今为三个指标最多(强)的年代,而上世纪70年代为最少（最差）的年代.并通过周期分析（小波分析）可知，均有对应的显著变化周期。
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| 关 键 词： | 极端降水事件 极端降水阀值 年代际变化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014/11/11 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015/6/10 0:00:00 |
The climatological characteristics of extreme summer precipitation events during the recent 54 years in the Altay Region |
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| Bo Ernan,Qia Lihaer,A Yimin,Bie Ke Da Wu Lie Ti and Song Jia.The climatological characteristics of extreme summer precipitation events during the recent 54 years in the Altay Region[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2016,10(4):39-46. |
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| Authors: | Bo Ernan Qia Lihaer A Yimin Bie Ke Da Wu Lie Ti and Song Jia |
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| Institution: | Meteorological Altay region,Xinjiang Altay,Fuyun County Meteorological Bureau,Fuhai County Meteorological Bureau,Meteorological Bureau of Jimunai county,Tacheng Meteorological Bureau |
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| Abstract: | The paper used percentile method from WMO to calculate the threshold values of extreme summer precipitation events during the recent 54 years in the Altay Region, which further analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation in summer. The data used here was the daily valid precipitation data in summer in the Altay Region from 1960 to 2013. The results showed that the threshold values of summer extreme precipitation were much smaller in the west and the south rather than in the north and the east in the Altay Region. Moreover, the number and the intensity of summer extreme precipitation days could be summarized into 5 predominant modes, while the extreme precipitation amount could be summarized into 6 predominant modes. According to the results of the standard time series analysis, each mode corresponds to its own characteristics of precipitation days, levels and intensity. Specifically, most of the counties and cities had an increasing trend in their precipitation days, levels and intensity especially in the north and the east. These three indices became very strong in the 1990s and the 2010s( till now), while in the 1970s they turned much weaker. Meanwhile, the results of wavelet analysis showed that these three indices had their own predominant periods. |
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| Keywords: | extreme precipitation the threshold of extreme precipitation interannual changes |
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