| 乌鲁木齐市北部农区近53 a来日照时数变化分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑玉萍.乌鲁木齐市北部农区近53 a来日照时数变化分析[J].新疆气象,2017,11(6):40-45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑玉萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 乌鲁木齐市气象局 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重大科学研究计划项目（2012CB956204-2）：干旱区绿洲农田生态系统脆弱性评估。 |
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| 摘 要： | 摘要：基于1964-2016年乌鲁木齐市米东区日照时数资料，使用线性回归方法，分析乌鲁木齐市北部农区日照时数的时空变化特征，并用偏最小二乘法（PLS）分析日照时数与各气象要素之间的相关性。结果表明:（1）年日照时数平均每10a递减95.5h，1998年后日照时数急剧减少，连续19a均呈负距平。（2）3-10月日照时数变化不明显，11月至次年2月日照时数显著减少。（3）4—10月大田作物生长季光照条件稳定，冬季设施农业生产季11月至次年3月的日照时数显著减少、寡照日数增多，光照不足严重影响设施农业生产。（4）近53a雾日增加、低能见度发生频率增大、低云量增多、冬季降雪量增加等是造成米东区日照时数剧烈减少的主要气象原因，米东区和主城区相比，局地气候特征更为突出。
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| 关 键 词： | 关键词: 乌鲁木齐 北部农区 日照时数 变化趋势 偏最小二乘回归 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/4/6 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/6/19 0:00:00 |
Analysis of the sunshine time change in the northern agricultural area of urumqi in recent 53a |
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| ZHENG Yu-ping.Analysis of the sunshine time change in the northern agricultural area of urumqi in recent 53a[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2017,11(6):40-45. |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Yu-ping |
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| Institution: | Urumqi Meteorological Bureau,Xinjiang Urumqi 830006 |
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| Abstract: | Abstract: This paper analyzed the mutation characteristics of sunshine duration in northern rural section of Urumqi, based on the materials of sunshine duration of Midong District in Urumqi from 1964 to 2016, with the method of linear regression. The correlation between the number of hours of sunshine and the elements of the meteorological elements was analyzed by the means of Partial Least Squares regression (PLS). The results show that: 1) The average annual sunshine rate decreased by 95.5 h per 10a, and the number of hours of sunshine continuous 19a is a negative distance and fell sharply Since 1998.2) The Changes of sunshine hours in the From March to October were not significant, and the changes was significantly reduced in the November to February of the next year. 3)The change in the number of sunshine hours was not evident from April to October in every year. This is the season when crop growing in the field. From November to March of the next year, which is the time of the facility agriculture production, the sunshine hours have significantly decreased which have influences on the agriculture production. 4) The main reasons which make sunshine duration decrease are increasing fog days, high frequency of low visibility, increasing low cloud cover, high amount of snowfall in winter. Compared with the main part of the city, the northern agricultural area local climate is more prominent. |
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| Keywords: | Keywords: Urumqi The northern rural section Sunshine duration mutation trend Partial Least Squares regression |
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