| 不同气候带城市气温对老年呼吸系统疾病死亡影响及趋利降风险效应研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陆美静,孙羽,尹立,王式功,胥春云,樊晋,瞿冲,邓徐慧.不同气候带城市气温对老年呼吸系统疾病死亡影响及趋利降风险效应研究[J].新疆气象,2023,17(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 陆美静 孙羽 尹立 王式功 胥春云 樊晋 瞿冲 邓徐慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院/环境气象与健康研究院,海南省第二人民医院气候医学临床研究中心,攀枝花市中心医院气象医学研究中心,成都信息工程大学大气科学学院/环境气象与健康研究院,云南省元江县卫健局,成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,成都信息工程大学大气科学学院/环境气象与健康研究院,成都信息工程大学大气科学学院/环境气象与健康研究院 |
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| 基金项目： | 2021年省级科技计划转移支付专项资金项目（编号：21ZYZF-S-01）、攀枝花市科学技术局创新中心建设项目（编号：2021ZX-5-1）、四川省区域创新合作项目(编号：2022YFQ0001）、中国气象局西南区域气象中心创新团队基金（XNQYCXTD-202203）、2021年度第二批攀枝花市市级科技计划项目（编号：2021CY-S-4）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于元江、成都与西安三个不同气候带城市的逐日疾病死亡数据与同期气象数据,首先采用广义相加模型和分布滞后非线性模型探究了这3座不同气候带城市气温对老年呼吸系统疾病死亡风险的影响,然后使用归因分值（AFs）量化不同气温段对呼吸系统疾病所造成的健康损失,并定量评估三地之间季节性气候趋利可获得的死亡风险降低效应。结果表明：（1）元江、成都与西安地区气温与老年呼吸系统疾病死亡关系大致分别呈“W”、反“J”、反“J”型分布。（2）气温对元江老年人群呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响以高温即时性更为突出,对于成都、西安老年人群而言,则以低温滞后性更为显著。（3）元江、成都与西安由气温造成的AFs分别为9.64%、11.25%和18.26%,其中冷效应对呼吸系统疾病产生的死亡风险更大。将气温进一步细分为4个气温段(极端低温、中等低温、中等高温和极端高温),中等低温造成的超额死亡累计人数最多,这与其发生频次多密切相关。（4）若元江、成都、西安有意愿有条件的老年居民采取候鸟式季节性气候趋利避暑或避寒康养,可在一定程度上降低由当地季节性不适气候所产生的健康风险。
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| 关 键 词： | 气温 呼吸系统疾病 死亡风险 归因风险 超额死亡风险 |
| 收稿时间： | 2023/2/6 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2023/6/11 0:00:00 |
Study on the effect of urban temperature in different climate zones on mortality from respiratory diseases in the elderly and the convergent risk reduction effect |
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| Abstract: | Based on daily disease mortality data and contemporaneous meteorological data from three cities in different climate zones, Yuanjiang, Chengdu and Xi''an, we first investigated the effect of temperature on the risk of elderly respiratory disease mortality in these three cities in different climate zones using generalized summation models and distributed lagged nonlinear models, we then used attribution scores (AFs) to quantify the health loss from respiratory disease across temperature bands and to quantitatively assess the mortality risk reduction effect obtainable from seasonal climate convergence between the three sites. The results showed that: (1) The relationship between temperature and mortality from respiratory diseases in the elderly in Yuanjiang, Chengdu and Xi''an showed a "W", inverse "J" and inverse "J" distribution, respectively. (2) The effect of temperature on respiratory disease mortality in the elderly population in Yuanjiang was more prominent with high temperature immediacy, while for the elderly population in Chengdu and Xi''an, it was more significant with low temperature lag. (3) AFs caused by air temperature were 9.64%, 11.25% and 18.26% for Yuanjiang, Chengdu and Xi''an, respectively, where the cold effect produced a greater risk of death from respiratory diseases. Further subdividing the temperature into four temperature bands (extreme low, moderate low, moderate high, and extreme high), the highest cumulative number of excess deaths caused by moderate low temperature is closely related to its high frequency of occurrence. (4) If elderly residents in Yuanjiang, Chengdu and Xi''an who have the will and conditions to adopt migratory bird seasonal climate convergence to avoid heat or cold recreation, the health risks arising from local seasonal discomfort climate can be reduced to a certain extent. |
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| Keywords: | Temperature Respiratory diseases Risk of death Attributable risk Excess risk of death |
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