| 超短期风速预报方法研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈学君,李仲龙.超短期风速预报方法研究进展[J].新疆气象,2018,12(6):84-92. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈学君 李仲龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 甘肃省气象服务中心;甘肃省气象信息与技术装备保障中心;沈阳师范大学科协;辽宁省...;深圳市社区卫生协会;深圳...;无锡市人民医院信息科;;北京师范大学教育学院;北...;陕西师范大学教育学院;;国网天津市电力公司经济技...;甘肃省气象服务中心;甘肃...;郑州财经学院;;国网浙江省电力公司宁波供...;徐州医学院附属医院临床学... |
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| 基金项目： | 甘肃省自然科学基金“超短期风速预测方法研究”（项目编号：1506RJZA187） |
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| 摘 要： | 综合分析国内外风速预报相关文献,从物理方法、统计与机器学习方法、组合方法3个方面对超短期风速预报方法的研究现状进行归纳总结,对比了主要预报方法的优缺点,给出了不确定分析和误差评价指标,探讨了在超短期风速预报研究中应重点解决的问题和发展方向。
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| 关 键 词： | 超短期风速预测 物理方法 统计与机器学习方法 组合方法：不确定分析 误差评估指标 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/5/17 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/7/4 0:00:00 |
Research progresses on ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting methods |
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| Abstract: | Due to the shortage of traditional fossil energy and increasingly serious environmental pollution, green energy has become the development direction. Wind energy is a kind of clean and renewable energy, and the proportion of wind power generation in the national energy structure is enhancing increasingly. However, as the intermittent and volatility of wind power generation bring more and more serious impact on the power grid, the real-time power dispatch becomes particularly important. Related research works on ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting have drawn extensive attention. Firstly, the related domestic and international wind speed forecasting researches are comprehensively analyzed. Secondly, the research status of ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting methods are summarized from three aspects: physical methods, statistical and machine learning methods,and combination methods. Thirdly, the advantages and disadvantages of the main forecasting methods are compared.In addition, the uncertainty analysis and the error evaluation metrics are provided. Finally,the issues and directions that should be mainly addressed in the research of ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting are discussed. |
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| Keywords: | Ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting Physical methods Statistical and machine learning methods Combination methods Uncertainty analysis Error evaluation metrics |
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