| 南疆夏季不同降水类型预报及递进式服务思考 |
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| 引用本文： | 窦新英,安大维.南疆夏季不同降水类型预报及递进式服务思考[J].新疆气象,2018,12(4):15-21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 窦新英 安大维 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆气象台 |
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| 基金项目： | 新疆维吾尔自治区科技计划项目(2013911016) |
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| 摘 要： | 南疆作为气候干旱区,夏季常发生不同类型的降水,2013年6月南疆短历时、高强度、小范围降水事件和2016年8月长时间、持续型、大范围降水事件在预报和服务方面有较大差异。分析两次强降水事件,南亚高压双体型是南疆夏季强降水的大尺度环流背景。高强度降水事件环流经向度大,高、中、低纬低槽同位相叠加,是造成强降水的直接影响系统;持续型强降水事件在500 hPa高空平均环流场上显示,欧亚范围内中高纬度地区为两脊一槽的经向环流,西西伯利亚至中亚地区的副热带大槽呈东北—西南向分布,长波槽底伸至38°N附近,是造成持续型强降水和气温持续下降或偏低的直接影响系统。本文在预报基础上,从气象服务的角度出发,结合长期、中短期、短时临近天气预报,重点分析在时间、范围和强度等方面存在明显差异的不同类型强降水过程中气象服务的递进式思路和方法,为精细化气象服务提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 南疆 不同降水类型 递进式服务 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/5/22 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/6/1 0:00:00 |
Precipitation Forecast and Progressive Service insummer in Southern Xinjiang |
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| Institution: | Urumqi Meteorological Bureau, |
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| Abstract: | As an arid climate zone in southern Xinjiang, different types of precipitation often occur in summer. In June 2013, short-term, high-intensity, and small-scale precipitation events occurred in South Xinjiang, and in August 2016, long-term, continuous, and large-scale precipitation events were forecasted and served. There are major differences. Two heavy precipitation events were analyzed. The South Asian high-pressure twin-type is the background of large-scale circulation in southern Xinjiang. High-intensity precipitation events have large meridional meridionality, high-medium low-latitude low troughs are superimposed on the same phase, circulation is north-south-south vortex, east-west strikes are the main cause of heavy rainfall in southern Xinjiang, and persistent heavy precipitation events are at 500 hPa upper-air average. The circulation field shows that the circulation has a longitude, and West Siberia to Central Asia is a low-value system activity area, which is the direct cause of the continuous heavy rainfall and the continuous decrease or low temperature accompanying the temperature. On the basis of forecasting, this paper starts from the perspective of meteorological services and combines long-medium-term, short-term and short-term approaching weather forecasts to focus on analyzing the progressive types of meteorological services in different types of precipitation in terms of differences in time, scope, and intensity. The ideas and methods provide a reference for the refinement of meteorological services. |
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| Keywords: | southern Xinjiang different types of precipitation progressive service |
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