| 2016年夏季DOGRAFS系统站点24h降水量级预报检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 李曼,琚陈相,辛渝,杜娟,马玉芬,马秀梅.2016年夏季DOGRAFS系统站点24h降水量级预报检验[J].新疆气象,2018,12(2):15-21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李曼 琚陈相 辛渝 杜娟 马玉芬 马秀梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所;中亚大气科学研究中心,中亚大气科学研究中心;中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,中亚大气科学研究中心;中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,中亚大气科学研究中心;中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,中亚大气科学研究中心;中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,中亚大气科学研究中心;中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(SQJ2013013)和科技部公益性行业科研专项(GYHY201506009)共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 随着精细化降水预报的要求和发展,模式对站点定量降水预报已成为天气预报业务的主要参考依据之一。本文对乌鲁木齐区域数值天气预报系统DOGRAFS v1.0在2016年夏季全疆105个站点的24h累积降水量的预报性能进行统计检验。结果表明：(1)除山区外,全疆晴天预报准确率达到85%以上,其中南疆盆地、吐鄯托盆地晴天预报准确率达到95%以上。(2)对于小雨出现较多的站点,预报准确率达到55%以上、部分站点达到70%,同时上述区域存在15%左右的报强率；对于降水较少的南疆盆地和吐鄯托盆地整体以漏报为主,漏报率在80%以上。(3)北疆大部分地区和南疆西部山区的中雨预报准确率整体在30%左右；中雨日数较多的中天山及其两侧预报准确率约60%,该区域也存在20%左右的报强率；其他地区预报降水较实况以偏弱为主。(4)大雨及以上量级降水,模式预报整体表现为偏弱,对于大降水出现较多的地区预报平均准确率为25-30%。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域数值天气预报系统 降水量级 统计检验 乌鲁木齐 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/9/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/11/7 0:00:00 |
Evaluation of 24h Precipitation Level Forecasting of DOGRAFS System during the Summer of 2016 |
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| LI Man,and.Evaluation of 24h Precipitation Level Forecasting of DOGRAFS System during the Summer of 2016[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2018,12(2):15-21. |
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| Authors: | LI Man and |
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| Institution: | Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorology Administration,,,,, |
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| Abstract: | With the requirements and development of fine weather forecast, the quantitative precipitation forecast of numerical weather prediction models has become a major basis of daily operation weather forecast. In this paper, the forecast performance of DOGRAFS v1.0 of 24h cumulative precipitation on 105 stations in Xinjiang during the summer of 2016 has been statistically evaluated. The results show that: (1) In addition to mountainous areas, the accuracy rate of sunny days in Xinjiang is more than 85%, among which the accuracy rate in south Xinjiang basin and Turpan basin is more than 95%. (2) For the stations where light rain occurs more frequently, the forecast accuracy rate is more than 55%, part of which is 70%, and the forecast result is greater than the observation in these stations is about 15%. In south Xinjiang basin and Turpan basin, the rate of omission is more than 80%. (3) The forecast accuracy rate of moderate rain in most areas of north Xinjiang and western mountainous areas of South Xinjiang is about 30%. The accuracy rate in middle Tianshan Mountains and both sides is about 60% and the rate of the forecast greater than the observation in these areas is about 20%. In other areas, forecast precipitation is almost weaker than the actual rainfall. (4) The overall performance of DOGRAFS on heavy rain and above magnitude precipitation is weak. In the areas where heavy rain occurs more frequently, the average accurate rate is 25-30%. |
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| Keywords: | DOGRAFS System Precipitation level Statistical verification Urumqi |
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