| 1980-2020年山西省极端降水的研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 丁敏,李妍,孟洁,韩琛惠,高珍,牛云.1980-2020年山西省极端降水的研究[J].新疆气象,2023,17(6). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 丁敏 李妍 孟洁 韩琛惠 高珍 牛云 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 山西省气象服务中心,山西省气象服务中心,山西省气象服务中心,山西省气象服务中心,山西省气象服务中心,山西省气象服务中心 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 基于1980-2020年山西省109个气象观测站点的逐日降水资料,选取10个极端降水指数,采用气候倾向率、相关分析、因子分析、R/S预测方法等方法,对山西省极端降水进行了时空分布的研究,以期为山西省的气候变化、生态环境保护、防灾减灾、气象服务工作提供参考依据,结果表明：(1)从时间尺度来看,1980-2020年期间,山西省极端降水的强度和极值都有明显增加,连续干旱日数和连续湿日日数呈下降趋势,其余均表现出不同程度的增加,其中年总降水量增加幅度最明显；从空间尺度来看,年总降水量、降水强度、降水频率、极值均为从西北向东南逐渐增多,空间差异较明显；从各站点的空间分布来看,北部和中部地区的极端事件增加最显著,北部地区的干旱日数仍以增加趋势为主,连续湿日日数气候倾向率的空间差异较大,中部地区站点显著增加,南北部以减少趋势为主；(2)基于相关分析方法表明各极端降水指数(除干旱日数外)与年总降水量都有很好的相关关系,强降水量和极强降水量对年总降水量的贡献值呈现出增加趋势；采用因子分析方法提取了3个公共因子,方差贡献率累计达到了87％,可以看出极端降水强度和降水量指数在对极端降水方面影响较大；利用R/S分析法可以得到年总降水量、中雨日数、大雨日数、最大5日降水量这几个指数未来呈现弱减少趋势,而干旱日数仍为减少趋势,连续湿日日数为持续弱增加趋势。总体看来,山西省极端降水近年来呈现出增加趋势,在空间分布有明显差异。
|
| 关 键 词： | 山西省 极端降水指数 时空变化 因子分析 R/S预测方法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/8/1 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/11/22 0:00:00 |
Analysis of Extreme Precipition Characteristics in Shanxi Province During 1980-2020 |
| |
| Ding Min,Li Yan,Meng Jie,Han Chenhui,Gao Zhen and Niu Yun.Analysis of Extreme Precipition Characteristics in Shanxi Province During 1980-2020[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2023,17(6). |
| |
| Authors: | Ding Min Li Yan Meng Jie Han Chenhui Gao Zhen and Niu Yun |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the daily precipitation data of 109 meteorological observation stations in Shanxi Province from 1980 to 2020 and 10 extreme precipitation indices were selected By using climate tendency rate, correlation analysis, factor analysis and R/S prediction method to study the spatial and temporal distribution of extreme precipitation in Shanxi Province. In order to provide reference for climate change, ecological environment protection, disaster prevention and mitigation, meteorological services in Shanxi Province, the results show that: (1)From the perspective of time scale, the intensity and extreme value of extreme precipitation in Shanxi Province increased significantly during 1980-2020, and the number of continuous dry days and wet days showed a decreasing trend, while the rest showed varying degrees of increase, among which the increase of annual total precipitation was the most obvious. From the perspective of spatial scale, annual total precipitation, precipitation intensity, precipitation frequency and extreme value gradually increased from northwest to southeast, with obvious spatial differences. From the spatial distribution of each station, the extreme events increased most significantly in the northern and central regions. The number of dry days still showed an increasing trend in the northern region, while the climatic trend rate of continuous wet days showed a significant increase in the central region and a decreasing trend in the southern and northern regions. (2) Based on the correlation analysis method, all extreme precipitation indexes (except the number of dry days) have a good correlation with annual total precipitation, and the contribution value of heavy precipitation and extremely strong precipitation to annual total precipitation shows an increasing trend. Three common factors were extracted by factor analysis method, and the variance contribution rate reached 87%.that extreme precipitation intensity and precipitation index have a great influence on extreme precipitation. According to R/S analysis, annual total precipitation, moderate rain days, heavy rain days and maximum 5-day precipitation showed a weak decreasing trend in the future, while the number of dry days still showed a decreasing trend, and the number of continuous wet days showed a continuous weak increasing trend. In general, the extreme precipitation in Shanxi Province has shown an increasing trend in recent years, with obvious differences in spatial distribution. |
| |
| Keywords: | Shanxi extreme precipitation indices Spatiotemporal characteristics |
|
| 点击此处可从《新疆气象》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《新疆气象》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
