| 2016年乌鲁木齐区域数值天气预报系统预报性能客观检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 李曼,杜娟,辛渝,马玉芬,琚陈相.2016年乌鲁木齐区域数值天气预报系统预报性能客观检验[J].新疆气象,2017,11(5):46-52. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李曼 杜娟 辛渝 马玉芬 琚陈相 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所;中亚大气科学研究中心,中亚大气科学研究中心;中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,中亚大气科学研究中心;中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,中亚大气科学研究中心;中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,中亚大气科学研究中心;中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(SQJ2013013)和科技部公益性行业科研专项(GYHY201506009)共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于MET检验工具对乌鲁木齐区域数值天气预报系统DOGRAFS v1.0在2016年各季节中的预报性能进行客观检验评估,主要检验要素有2m温度、10m风、500hPa形势场等,并与2015年同期预报性能进行对比分析,结果表明：(1)2016年该系统对各个季节2m温度预报以冷偏差为主,午间偏低幅度较大；夏季性能最优,冬季性能最差。对10m风预报以正偏差为主,平均误差在1.0m/s以内；各季节预报性能无明显差异。(2)2016年该系统对500hPa位势高度和温度预报以负偏差为主；位势高度预报性能夏季最优、秋季最差；温度预报性能在夏季最优、冬季最差。24h预报时效的预报性能整体优于48h预报时效。(3)2016年晴雨预报效果较好,夏季降水评分最高、冬季最低。随降水阈值增大、TS评分降低,系统对夏季午后至夜间降水预报评分较高。(4)2015年各要素预报偏差的变化特征与2016年相似,2016年预报性能整体优于2015年。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域天气数值预报系统 预报性能 客观检验 乌鲁木齐 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/2/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/3/10 0:00:00 |
Objective Verification on DOGRAFS System during 2016 |
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| LI Man,DU Juan,XIN Yu,MA Yufen and JU Chenxiang.Objective Verification on DOGRAFS System during 2016[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2017,11(5):46-52. |
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| Authors: | LI Man DU Juan XIN Yu MA Yufen and JU Chenxiang |
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| Institution: | Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorology Administration,Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorology Administration,Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorology Administration,Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorology Administration,Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorology Administration |
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| Abstract: | The forecast performance of DOGRAFS v1.0 in 2016 is objectively verified in each season using MET and compared with the same period in 2015. The results show that: (1) in 2016, the forecast results of 2m temperature in each season are always low than observations and obviously lower in noon. The performance of 2m temperature is best in summer and worst in winter. The forecast results of 10m wind are mainly higher than observations, the average error is within 1.0 m/s and there are no obvious differences in each season. (2) In 2016, there are mainly negative deviations in 500hPa geopotential height and temperature. The performance in 24h forecast period is better than 48h. The performance of 500hPa geopotential height is best in summer and worst in autumn, while, the temperature is best in summer and worst in winter. (3) In 2016, the forecast performance of 6h accumulated rainfall judgment is good. With the increase of precipitation threshold, TS is reduced. The TS in summer is highest and in winter is lowest. In summer, TS is higher during afternoon to night. (4) The variation characteristics of forecast bias of each factor are similar between 2015 and 2016. Overall, the forecast performance in 2016 is better than 2015. |
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| Keywords: | DOGRAFS System Forecast performance Objective verification Urumqi |
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