| 用时间序列方法预测阿克苏市气温的年际变化 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王华.用时间序列方法预测阿克苏市气温的年际变化[J].新疆气象,2000,23(4):8-10. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王华 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 阿克苏气象台,新疆阿克苏 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用时间序列方法阿克苏市１９５４～１９９７年月、季、年平均气温序列进行分析，建立各气温序列的时间序列预报方程，并对阿克苏市平均气温的年际变化进行预测，预测值与实况值相关较好，其中１月、９月、冬季与年４个气温预报方程的效果最为显著，信度可达９９．９％。
|
| 关 键 词： | 气温 时间序列 预测 年际变化 |
Predicting Interannual Change of Temperature in Akesu with Time Series Method |
| |
| Wang Hua.Predicting Interannual Change of Temperature in Akesu with Time Series Method[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2000,23(4):8-10. |
| |
| Authors: | Wang Hua |
| |
| Abstract: | The average temperature series of month,season and year in Akesu from 1954 to 1997 are analysed with the time series method.Predicting equations of each temperature series are given,and interannual changes of average temperatures were predicted.The relationship between forecasting values and real data are better,especially in January,Setemper,winter and a year with confidence of 99.9%. |
| |
| Keywords: | timperature time series forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
|
