| C波段雷达在新疆区域数值预报系统中的应用初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 马秀梅.C波段雷达在新疆区域数值预报系统中的应用初探[J].新疆气象,2015,9(6):19-26. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马秀梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于新疆区域数值预报系统（Desert Oasis Gobi Rapid Analysis Forecast System,下称DOGRAFS），开展了同化C波段雷达资料对2010年10月6日发生在新疆的一次强降水过程预报结果影响的试验分析。其中设计包括不同化任何资料、同化常规资料、同化雷达反射率因子、同化雷达径向风、同时同化反射率因子和径向风五组试验，重点分析了雷达资料同化对此次天气过程降水、温度以及风速模拟效果的影响。结果表明：（1）同化雷达径向风和同时同化径向风和反射率因子相对于其他三组试验，对降水预报的TS和ETs评分更高；（2）相对于其他三组试验，同化雷达径向风和同时同化径向风和反射率因子对模式垂直方向上的温度、风速预报偏差具有一定的改善效果；（3）对于地面2 m温度和10 m风速而言，同化常规观测资料比其他四组试验预报的平均偏差和均方根误差更小；其它四组试验误差相当，差别不明显，表明同化雷达对近地面层温度和风的影响不明显。本研究旨在探索C波段雷达观测资料在新疆区域数值预报系统中的适用性，为今后雷达观测资料在业务系统中的应用提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域预报系统 C波段雷达 三维变分同化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/5/26 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015/8/11 0:00:00 |
A Study of the Application of C-band Radar Observation in Numerical Forecasting System in Xinjiang Region |
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| Ma Xiumei.A Study of the Application of C-band Radar Observation in Numerical Forecasting System in Xinjiang Region[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2015,9(6):19-26. |
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| Authors: | Ma Xiumei |
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| Institution: | Institute of Desert Meteorology, CMA |
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| Abstract: | The effects of the C-band radar data assimilation on a heavy rainfall event, which happened on October, 6th 2010, has been conducted based on the Regional Numerical Forecasting System in Xinjiang (Desert Oasis Gobi Rapid Analysis Forecast System, DOGRAFS). Focusing on the effects of radar data simulation on precipitation, temperature and wind speed effect, five experiments were designed in this study, including (1) control run with no data assimilation (Ctr), (2) conventional data assimilation (Con), (3) radar reflectivity assimilation only, (4) radial velocity assimilation only, and (5) both reflectivity and radial velocity assimilation,. The results suggest that: (1) compared among each other, there is higher precipitation TS and ETs scores with radial velocity assimilation only and both radial velocity and reflectivity assimilation; (2) the assimilation of radial velocity, and both radial velocity and reflectivity have improved temperature and wind forecast accuracy in the vertical direction regard to the temperature and wind speed prediction mean error (ME) and root mean square error (RMSE); and (3) regard to the 2 m temperature and 10 m wind above ground level, the experiments with conventional data assimilated have the least ME and RMSE error, while the other four group experiments have fairly same errors, suggesting that the radar assimilation has little influence on the surface temperature and wind prediction. This study aims to explore the C-band radar application in Xinjiang regional numerical forecasting system, and provides a reference for radar observation application in the operational system in the future. |
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| Keywords: | Regional Numerical Forecasting System C-band radar observation Three-dimensional assimilation |
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