| 1961—2015年中国暴雨变化诊断及其与多种气候因子的关联性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 孔锋,方建,吕丽莉.1961—2015年中国暴雨变化诊断及其与多种气候因子的关联性研究[J].热带气象学报,2018,34(1):34-47. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孔锋 方建 吕丽莉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中亚大气科学研究中心，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002 |
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| 基金项目： | 中亚大气科学研究基金“中亚地区暴雨时空变化及其影响因素诊断”CAAS201804国家自然科学基金面上项目“北京城市热岛效应与强降水事件的关系研究”41775078 |
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| 摘 要： | 气候变化背景下，频发的暴雨事件造成城市内涝、人员伤亡和财产损失，已经成为全社会广泛关注的焦点问题之一。为了诊断中国暴雨的时空变化及其与不同自然因子的关联性，采用1961—2015年中国659个降水站点数据，采用线性趋势、EOF分析等多种统计方法诊断了中国暴雨时空变化特征，结果表明，中国暴雨雨量、雨日和雨强在1961—2015年以胡焕庸线为界呈现出东南高-西北低的气候态空间分布格局；线性趋势分析表明1961—2015年中国暴雨雨量和雨日从东南沿海向西北内陆呈明显“增-减-增”的空间分布格局，且呈增长趋势的站点占主导，分别高达80.88%和79.81%；从西北内陆到东南沿海的年代剖面分析表明中国暴雨雨量和雨日随着年代推移在迅速增长；对低通滤波后的中国暴雨进行EOF分析表明中国暴雨雨量和雨日的增长东南沿海快，内陆地区慢。根据IPCC等已有研究中筛选出对中国地区有影响的28个气候因子，并将其与659个站点的暴雨进行相关分析，结果表明不同气候因子与不同区域暴雨呈现出错综复杂的相关性特征，其中与暴雨雨量呈现以正相关和负相关为主的气候因子分别为15和13个，全局相关因子包含AAO(Antarctic Oscillation)、Pacific Warmpool，而其它气候因子在七大分区中与暴雨的关联性各有突出，表现出明显的空间异质性。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 暴雨诊断 时空格局 EOF分析 气候指数 相关性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-10-12 |
THE DIAGNOSIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN CHINA AND CORRELATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MULTIPLE CLIMATIC FACTORS IN CHINA FROM 1961 TO 2015 |
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| Institution: | 1.Central Asia Atmospheric Sciences Center, Urumqi 830002, China2.Training Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100875, China3.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China4.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry5.School of Resources and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China |
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| Abstract: | In recent years many regions are pounded with heavy rainfall, causing flood, casualties, and property damage in many urban areas. Frequent extreme precipitation events under the background of global climate change has caused terrible harm to economic and social development, life security, ecosystem, etc., which has brought profound impact on sustainable development of disaster area. Heavy rainfall has become a key factor of global and regional disasters and environmental risk, and has widely cause concern among academic community and most sectors of the society. According to the existing research results that precipitation in China is greatly affected by various atmospheric, oceanic and other climatic factors. In order to diagnose the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of heavy rainfall in China and its correlation with different climatic indices, here we use daily precipitation observations of 659 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2015, based on the heavy rainfall threshold of daily rainfall no less than 50 mm, to calculate heavy rainfall in China. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of heavy rainfall, including heavy rainfall amounts, heavy rainfall days and heavy rainfall intensity in China, are diagnosed by using various statistical methods such as linear trend, EOF analysis and so on. The results show that China's heavy rainfall amounts, heavy rainfall days and heavy rainfall intensity from 1961 to 2015, by taking the Hu Huanyong line as the dividing line, has shown a significant spatial distribution pattern of being high in the southeast versus low in the northwest. Linear trend analysis result shows that heavy rainfall amounts and heavy rainfall days show an obvious spatial distribution pattern of 'increasing-decreasing-increasing' from the southeast coast to the northwest inland in China. And the meteorological stations number with increasing trend is dominant, which is up to 80.88% in all the meteorological stations in heavy rainfall amounts and 79.81% in heavy rainfall days. The decadal profile analysis result shows that heavy rainfall amounts and heavy rainfall days are increasing rapidly with time from the northwest to the southeast coast in China. The EOF analysis of heavy rainfall after being low-pass filtered shows that heavy rainfall amounts and heavy rainfall days are increasing fast in southeast coastal regions but slowly in inland areas in China. According to the IPCC and other existing research, 28 climatic indices influencing heavy rainfall in China are selected. And the correlation analysis between the 659 meteorological stations and the 28 climatic factors are carried out. The results show that the correlation between different climatic indices and different region's heavy rainfall has significantly intricate features. The climatic indices with the heavy rainfall mainly showing positive and negative correlation are 15 and 13 respectively. Factors have global impact on heavy rainfall in China including AAO and Pacific Warm Pool, while other climate indices associated with heavy rainfall in the seven geographical regions in China prominent exhibit spatial heterogeneity. |
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