| 西北太平洋海温与广东省汛期降水的关系 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢炯光,纪忠萍.西北太平洋海温与广东省汛期降水的关系[J].热带气象学报,1999,15(1):56-63. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢炯光 纪忠萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州中心气象台 |
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| 摘 要： | 将西北太平洋分为８个海区，分析了广东省汛期（４－９月）降水与各海区海温的关系，并用因子分析法对９－２月各海区的相互关系进行了分析，发现降维后头４个主因子的方差贡献占总方差的８２．２３％；对主因子的载荷矩阵进行了极大方差旋转，对头４个主因子的物理意义进行了初步的解释。最后建立了汛期各月降水与海温的预报方程，经试报使用，高于近１０年的平均业务预报水平，对广东省的汛期降水短期气候预测有较好的参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 海温 汛期降水 极大方差旋转 |
| 收稿时间： | 1998/2/23 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 1998/7/22 0:00:00 |
THE RELATION BETWEEN SEASURFACE TEMPERATURE OF THE NORTH- WEST PACIFIC OCEAN AND FlOOD SEASON RAINFAll OF GUANGDONG PROVINCE |
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| Xie Jiongguang and Ji Zhongping.THE RELATION BETWEEN SEASURFACE TEMPERATURE OF THE NORTH- WEST PACIFIC OCEAN AND FlOOD SEASON RAINFAll OF GUANGDONG PROVINCE[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,1999,15(1):56-63. |
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| Authors: | Xie Jiongguang and Ji Zhongping |
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| Institution: | The Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou, 510080;The Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou, 510080 |
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| Abstract: | In this article we divide the northwest Pacific Ocean in to eight areas, and analyse the relation between GD flood season(April-September)rainfall and the sea areas. And we analyse relations among the eight areas with factor analysis. The main factor affecting GD flood season rainfall is found. Using its Variance of maximum rotation of the loading matrix, we work out the important main factor and the main variate affecting rainfall. In the end, we set up a forecast equation to the flood season with the SST which has been used in forecasting and proved to be superior to the average level of the last ten years' professional forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | SST Flood rainfall Variance of maximum rotation |
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