| 浙江大暴雨与南海台风“山竹”相关性数值研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 姜嘉俊,钱燕珍,段晶晶,王晓慧,方艳莹.浙江大暴雨与南海台风“山竹”相关性数值研究[J].热带气象学报,2022,38(1):68-80. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姜嘉俊 钱燕珍 段晶晶 王晓慧 方艳莹 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.宁波市气象台，浙江 宁波 315012 |
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| 基金项目： | 宁波市“科技创新2025”重大专项2019B10025宁波市自然基金2019A610446宁波市自然基金2019A610450浙江省气象科技计划项目2020QN24 |
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| 摘 要： | 2018年9月17日前后浙江东北部出现了大暴雨，与此同时，1822号台风“山竹”登陆广东并向西移动，为了研究浙江东北部大暴雨是否与“山竹”有关，利用云图资料、ERA-Interim再分析资料和自动站加密资料，先分析了2018年9月17日前后浙江东北部暴雨的天气形势，后通过WRF模式对此次过程进行了数值模拟，并做了将台风“山竹”去掉、增大一倍、缩小一半三个敏感性试验。表明此次暴雨过程出现在台风“山竹”倒槽东北顶端，是对流云系发展引发的。“山竹”的存在使得偏南气流输送到浙江东北部地区，且偏南风输送大小与“山竹”是否存在及其尺度密切相关。同时“山竹”使得浙江东北部区域存在着大范围深厚的高湿区，“山竹”越大，高湿区越深厚。“山竹”使得该区域低层有明显辐合，高层明显辐散，且尺度越大，辐合层高度越高。“山竹”还造成垂直运动旺盛，且尺度越大，上升运动越强。“山竹”使得浙江东北部大气层垂直螺旋度明显增大，且“山竹”越大，中低层垂直螺旋度越大，垂直螺旋度的大小对接下来6小时该区域降水量有很好的指示作用。由此，浙江暴雨预报需考虑同时出现的南海台风活动情况。
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| 关 键 词： | 台风“山竹” 暴雨 数值试验 水汽输送 垂直螺旋度 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-12-29 |
NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF EFFECT OF TYPHOON MANGKHUT ON EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN IN ZHEJIANG PROVINCE |
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| JIANG Jiajun,QIAN Yanzhen,DUAN Jingjing,WANG Xiaohui,FANG Yanying.NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF EFFECT OF TYPHOON MANGKHUT ON EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN IN ZHEJIANG PROVINCE[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2022,38(1):68-80. |
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| Authors: | JIANG Jiajun QIAN Yanzhen DUAN Jingjing WANG Xiaohui FANG Yanying |
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| Institution: | 1.Ningbo Meteorological Observatory, Ningbo 315012, China2.Meteorological Bureau of Haishu District, Ningbo 315012, China3.Ningbo Meteorological Service Center, Ningbo 315012, China |
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| Abstract: | Heavy rainfalls occurred in northeastern Zhejiang Province on around September 17, 2018. At the same time, Typhoon Mangkhut (No.1822) landed at Guangdong Province and then moved westward. To find whether there was a relationship between heavy rainfalls in northeastern Zhejiang and Typhoon Mangkhut, we used satellite cloud image data, EC-Interim reanalysis data and intensive automatic station data to analyze the synoptic situation of heavy rain in northeastern Zhejiang on around September 17, 2018. Then sensitivity simulation was conducted using the WRF (Weather Research Forecast) model 3.6.1. Three sensitivity tests were carried out by removing Typhoon Mangkhut, doubling it and reducing it by half. The results showed that rainstorms appeared on northeast side of the inverted trough of Typhoon Mangkhut. It was the development of convective cloud system that caused the torrential rain. Meanwhile, the southerly airflows were transported to northeastern Zhejiang by Typhoon Mangkhut. The analysis of meridional wind indicated that the magnitude of southerly airflows transport was closely related to the existence and scale of Typhoon Mangkhut. Typhoon Mangkhut led to a large area of high humidity in the northeast of Zhejiang as well. The larger the scale of Typhoon Mangkhut, the larger the high humidity area. It was also favorable for the development of obvious low-level convergence and high-level divergence. And the larger the scale, the higher the height of the convergence layer. Typhoon Mangkhut led to an increase of vertical helicity in the northeast of Zhejiang; the size of Typhoon Mangkhut and vertical helicity in low-middle layer showed a significantly positive correlation. The evolution of vertical helicity is a good indicator of 6-hour precipitation in the region. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the effect of typhoon over the South China Sea on the torrential rain forecast in Zhejiang Province. |
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| Keywords: | Typhoon Mangkhut heavy rainfall numerical experiment water vapor transport vertical helicity |
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