| 珠江口以西登陆热带气旋引发粤东暴雨的成因和预报着眼点分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张东,林芳妮,何如意,李霞,周伟隆.珠江口以西登陆热带气旋引发粤东暴雨的成因和预报着眼点分析[J].热带气象学报,2019,35(1):14-24. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张东 林芳妮 何如意 李霞 周伟隆 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.广东省气象台，广东 广州 510640 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局预报员专项项目CMAYBY2013-047 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用台风年鉴资料、雨量站观测资料及ERA-interim 1 °×1 °分析资料等，对1980—2015年在广东珠江口以西（徐闻-珠海）登陆且继续偏西（北）行但引发距离登陆点较远的粤东地区出现暴雨（“西登东雨”）的一类严重不对称热带气旋暴雨特征进行了分析。结果表明:在珠江口以西登陆的热带气旋中有近一半会给粤东地区带来暴雨；其登陆点位置远近与粤东暴雨发生与否没有直接联系，即登陆点越靠近（珠江口）并不一定使粤东更易出现暴雨；其登陆强度越强也不一定使粤东出现暴雨可能性越大，但使粤东出现特别弱降水（< 10 mm）的热带气旋多集中在（强）热带风暴级别。进一步分析引发粤东暴雨的天气形势及要素特征表明，热带气旋东侧的低空东南急流、偏东急流和偏南急流以及边界层的辐合线（台风槽）是引发粤东出现暴雨的重要原因，西太平洋副热带高压（简称副高）西南侧和“方头”副高西侧是粤东暴雨的有利形势；相似的低层风场和中层形势场背景下，700~500 hPa的湿度条件会明显影响到粤东出现暴雨的可能性的大小。
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| 关 键 词： | 登陆台风 暴雨 低空急流 粤东 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-10-25 |
ANALYSIS OF CAUSES AND FORECASTING CONSIDERATIONS OF HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN GUANGDONG INDUCED BY TROPICAL CYCLONES LANDING ON WESTERN GUANGDONG |
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| Institution: | 1.Guangdong Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou, 510640, China2.Shantou Meteorological Bureau, Shantou, 515041, China |
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| Abstract: | Using the data from Typhoon Almanac, rain gauges and ERA-interim 1 ° × 1 ° analysis data, the tropical cyclones that landed on the western part of Guangdong and moved westward (or northward) in the years 1980~2015 were analyzed. The results are shown as follows. Nearly half of these tropical cyclones caused heavy rainfall in eastern Guangdong and there is no direct relationship between typhoon landing position and heavy rain areas in this part of the province. Neither a landing position closer to Zhuhai nor a stronger landing strength makes heavy rain more prone to occur in Eastern Guangdong. The intensity of tropical cyclones concentrates mostly on the level of (strong) tropical storm when eastern Guangdong receives very weak precipitation (< 10 mm). Low-level jets (from the south, east and southeast) and typhoon troughs of the boundary layer are important causes of the heavy rain in eastern Guangdong. The fact that eastern Guangdong is to the southwest or south of the edge of a West Pacific subtropical high is also favorable for heavy precipitation to happen. The humidity of 700~500 hPa obviously affects the possibility of heavy rain in eastern Guangdong. |
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