| “15.7”广西超长持续性暴雨过程多尺度特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘国忠,赖珍权,钟祥平,黄荣,翟丽萍.“15.7”广西超长持续性暴雨过程多尺度特征分析[J].热带气象学报,2017,33(3):357-367. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘国忠 赖珍权 钟祥平 黄荣 翟丽萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西壮族自治区气象台，广西 南宁 530022 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局华南区域气象中心科技攻关项目GRMC2014M13中国气象局国家卫星气象中心项目201401KY002/02-3广西自然科学基金项目2014GXNSFAA118299中国气象局预报员专项CMAYBY-055 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用多源气象资料，通过综合诊断分析方法，对2015年一次广西持续性暴雨过程进行多尺度特征分析。(1) 南亚高压经历了双体型构建，副热带长波槽有利于冷空气南下和高空急流的建立。El Ni?o状态下，副高强度偏强，位置偏西、偏南，有利于暖湿气流向广西输送。南亚高压过渡层与副高对峙，有利于冷暖空气在广西交汇。(2) 影响天气系统有高空槽、切变线、冷锋、低空急流、季风槽及低涡等多天气系统。降雨分为锋前暖区、锋面、高空槽加强、季风槽与低涡等四个阶段。(3) 中尺度特征为锋前暴雨发生在MCC云团形成到减弱期，雷达强回波呈弓型，对流性强；锋面暴雨发生在MCC减弱后云带，雷达强回波为弓型向直线型转换，对流性减弱；高空槽加强暴雨为直线型云系和雷达回波增强；季风槽与低涡暴雨为增强的涡旋型云系和雷达强回波。(4) 暴雨发生在总体地势为云贵高原下坡和地面喇叭口地形辐合的桂西北、海陆分布差异的沿海及山脉迎风坡的桂东南。可见，长时间持续性暴雨过程是一个多尺度和多天气系统相互作用的结果，暴雨发生在有利的大尺度环流背景和天气系统配置下的中小尺度系统频繁发生处，地形助推暴雨作用明显。深刻理解持续性暴雨发生的尺度特征可提高该类天气预报能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 广西 多源气象资料应用 持续性暴雨 尺度特征分析 诊断分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-11-30 |
ANALYSIS OF MULTI-SCALE CHARACTERISTICS OF A JULY 2015 PERSISTENTLY LONG HEAVY RAINFALL IN GUANGXI |
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| Institution: | Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanning 530022, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on multi-source data, the multi-scale feature of an persistently long heavy rainfall processin Guangxi in July 2015 is analyzed through comprehensive diagnosis and analysis, and the results are shown as follows: (1) A South Asia high experienced an establishment that featured twin bodies, and a subtropical long wave trough was conducive to the southward advancement of cold air and establishment of a southwest jet stream. In the El Ni?o state, a West Pacific subtropical high was stronger and its position was more to the west and south as compared with the normal, favoring the transportation of warm and moist air flow to Guangxi. The transition layer of the South Asia high steadily confronted with the subtropical high, favorable for the intersection in Guangxi of cold and wet air; (2) The influence systems of this process were an upper trough, a shear line, a cold front, a low-level jet, a monsoon trough and a low vortex. The heavy rain process went through four stages: a warm sector ahead of a front, frontal surface, the strengthening of an upper-level trough and a monsoon trough and a vortex; (3) For the type of being ahead of a front, the rainstorm happened from the formation to the weakening of MCC, the radar echo was of a bow-type, and the convection was strong; For the front type, the rainstorm happened in the cloud band after the MCC weakened, the radar echo changed from a bow-type to linear, and the convection was weakening. For the type of a strengthening upper-level trough, the rainstorm was caused by a linear cloud system, and the radar echo was enhancing. For the type of monsoon trough and vortex, the rainstorm was caused by a vortex cloud system, and the radar echo was strong; (4) Heavy rainfall occurred at the leeside of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, in the northwest of Guangxi with trumpet shaped topographic convergence, on the coast with the land-sea distribution difference and in southeast of Guangxi with a windward slope of mountains. Thus it could be seen that this long duration rainstorm process was caused by the interaction of multi-scale weather systems, heavy rainfall happened where there was favorable large scale circulation and frequent meso-small scale systems, and the terrain was obviously conductive to the increase of rainfall. Through deep understanding of the scale characteristics of the continuous rainstorm, the ability of forecast for the this kind of weather can be improved. |
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