| 华南区域大气成分数值模式GRACEs预报性能评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 李婷苑,吴乃庚,邓雪娇,邓涛,陈靖扬,沈劲,邓思欣,梁华玲.华南区域大气成分数值模式GRACEs预报性能评估[J].热带气象学报,2021,37(2):207-217. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李婷苑 吴乃庚 邓雪娇 邓涛 陈靖扬 沈劲 邓思欣 梁华玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.广东省生态气象中心/珠江三角洲环境气象预报预警中心，广东 广州 510641 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目2018YFC0213902国家重点研发计划项目2019YFC0214605国家自然科学基金项目41801326广东省重点研发计划项目2020B1111360003广东省气象局科技创新团队项目GRMCTD202003国家环境保护区域空气质量监测重点实验室开放基金SRAQM01202001 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用2016-2019年广东省国控站实况监测数据对华南区域大气成分数值模式系统(GRACEs)预报性能进行了综合评估。除空气质量指数AQI外，重点对PM2.5、O3及NO2进行了分析评估。(1) 模式预报性能存在年际差异，对各要素的预报值总体偏低。(2) 模式预报能较好地反映空气质量的空间分布，PM2.5中心在珠三角西北部，而O3-8 h高值区在珠三角核心区和粤东沿海，但模式对O3-8 h高值区存在显著预报低估现象。(3)模式可较好地模拟出PM2.5月变化的单峰型特征和O3-8 h月变化双峰型特征，但模式对AQI的秋冬季主峰值和春季次峰值的预报存在低估，分别与模式对O3-8 h、PM2.5的低估有关。(4) 模式能较好体现O3的午后峰值和NO2双峰值的日变化规律；模式对O3前体物NO2的预报偏差，有可能是导致随后几小时对O3浓度预报偏差的重要原因。(5) 日平均浓度预报效果检验显示模式可较好预测AQI和3种污染物的变化趋势，但对夏秋季高O3-8 h浓度预报显著偏低；模式对轻度污染及以上等级预报能力偏低，亟需提升模式对污染天气的预报能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 空气质量 大气成分数值模式 GRACEs PM2.5 O3 预报检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-11-05 |
FORECASTING PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF GRACES IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE |
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| LI Ting-yuan,WU Nai-geng,DENG Xue-jiao,DENG Tao,CHEN Jing-yang,SHEN Jin,DENG Si-xin,LIANG Hua-ling.FORECASTING PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF GRACES IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2021,37(2):207-217. |
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| Authors: | LI Ting-yuan WU Nai-geng DENG Xue-jiao DENG Tao CHEN Jing-yang SHEN Jin DENG Si-xin LIANG Hua-ling |
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| Institution: | Guangdong Ecological Meteorological Center/ Environmental Meteorology Forecast Center of Pearl River Delta, Guangzhou 510640, China;1. Guangdong Ecological Meteorological Center/ Environmental Meteorology Forecast Center of Pearl River Delta, Guangzhou 510640, China; 2. Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/ Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510640, China;;Guangdong Environmental Monitoring Center/ State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Regional Air Quality Monitoring, Guangzhou 510308, China;Foshan Environmental Monitoring Center, Foshan, Guangdong 528000, China; Foshan Meteorological Bureau, Foshan, Guangdong 528000, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the observed data from national environment stations in Guangdong Province during 2016-2019, comprehensive evaluation is conducted on the forecasting performance of the Guangzhou Regional Atmospheric Composition and Environment Forecasting System (GRACEs). Apart from Air Quality Index (AQI), PM2.5, O3 and NO2 forecasting is also evaluated. The results are as follows: (1) There were inter-annual differences in the forecasting performance of GRACEs and the forecasted value of each parameter was universally low. (2) The model was skillful in forecasting the spatial distribution of air quality. The high concentration center of PM2.5 was in the northwest of the Pearl River Delta. The region of high O3-8 h was located in the core area of the Pearl River Delta and the eastern coast of Guangdong, though there was a significant underestimation in the high concentration region of O3-8 h. (3) In terms of monthly variation, GRACEs exhibited acceptable performance for the single-peak variation of PM2.5 and the bimodal variation of O3-8 h, but the main peak of AQI in autumn and the second peak in spring were underestimated, which were related to the underestimation of O3-8 h and PM2.5, respectively. (4) In terms of diurnal variation, GRACEs showed good capability in capturing the peak of O3 in the afternoon and the double peak of NO2. The forecast deviation of NO2, a precursor of O3, probably led to the forecast deviation of O3 concentration in the following hours. (5) The trend of the daily average concentration of AQI and 3 pollutants predicted by GRACEs was in accordance with that observed, but O3-8 h was significantly underestimated in summer and autumn. The capacity of GRACEs to forecast light pollution and above was low, so it is urgent to develop the model. |
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| Keywords: | air quality atmospheric composition and environment forecasting system GRACEs PM2 5 O3 forecast verification |
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