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热力强迫对副热带高压北跳类型影响机制的分析
引用本文:刘春,李跃凤,宋伟,刘自牧.热力强迫对副热带高压北跳类型影响机制的分析[J].热带气象学报,2018,34(4):546-553.
作者姓名:刘春  李跃凤  宋伟  刘自牧
作者单位:1.高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川 成都 610072
基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目91337215国家自然科学基金面上项目41275051
摘    要:通过分岔理论,讨论在取ΨA*=0.15,ΨL*=ΨM*=ΨN*=0条件下,ΨK*和ΨC*对副高北跳的影响。在ΨK*值固定的情况下,可以准确求得副高北跳的临界热力参数值。在此基础上,通过对临界热力参数的分析,得到了对于副高北跳类型的判别条件。通过计算,可以得出如下结果:在一定范围内,当|ΨK*|<0.075 8时,没有副高北跳现象发生;当|ΨK*|>0.279 3时,将出现副高不在长江流域停滞而直接跳跃到黄河流域的空梅情况;当0.075 8<|ΨK*|<0.279 3,将会出现副高的二次北跳现象,但在其绝对值较小时,入梅时的北跳并不明显,只是在出梅时有一次弱北跳,此时,雨带不集中在长江流域,梅雨不明显。 

关 键 词:气候学    动力学特征    分岔    副高北跳类型    临界热力参数
收稿时间:2017-05-24

ANALYSIS OF IMPACT MECHANISM FOR THERMAL FORCING ON THE TYPE OF NORTH SHIFT OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH
Institution:1.Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China2.Training Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China3.Neijiang Meteorological Bureau, Neijiang 641000, China4.Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China5.Sichuan Meteorological Service Center, Chengdu 610072, China
Abstract:Through the bifurcation theory, the impact of ψK* and ψC* on the north shift of the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is discussed under the conditions of ψA*=0.15, ψL*=ψM*=ψN*=0. In the case of ψK* as a fixed value, critical thermal parameter values about the north shift of the WPSH were acquired accurately. On this basis, through an analysis of the critical thermal parameters, the criterion of the type of the north shift of the WPSH was obtained. Through calculation, the result can be obtained as follows. In a certain range, when |ψK*| < 0.075 8, there is no north jump of the subtropical high. When |ψK*| > 0.279 3, there exits the phenomenon, in which the subtropical high does not stagnate over the Yangtze River basin, but jumps directly to the Yellow River basin. When 0.075 8 < |ψK*| < 0.279 3, the north shift does not happen. However, when its absolute value is small, the north shift is not obvious in the set-in of plum rains, but there is a weak north shift when the plum rains end. At this time, the rain belt is not concentrated in the Yangtze River basin where the plum rains are not obvious. 
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