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| 1951/1952～2004/2005年中国冬季降水变化研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 李帅,陈莉,任玉玉.1951/1952～2004/2005年中国冬季降水变化研究[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(1):94-98. |
| 作者姓名： | 李帅 陈莉 任玉玉 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 北京大学物理学院大气科学系,北京,100871;黑龙江省气象局,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150001 2. 哈尔滨市气象局,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150080;北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京,100875 3. 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京,100875 |
| 基金项目： | 重点项目 , 精细化数值预报研究共同资助项目 |
| 摘 要： | 运用AREM模式对2005年5月31日发生在湖南新邵的一次特大暴雨天气过程进行模拟分析.利用模式输出的1 h基本物理量计算螺旋度,结果表明:螺旋度对特大暴雨的预报有指示意义,特大暴雨产生在低层正螺旋度中心与高层负螺旋度中心相配合的区域.在暴雨强盛期,螺旋度中低层最大正值位于750 hPa,最大负值位于450 hPa.比较新邵1 h实况降雨量和AREM模式模拟的降水值与相应时刻的螺旋度,发现5月31日19～22时之间的暴雨增幅最大,为172 mm/3 h,而螺旋度值也相应出现了最大的增幅20 m2/(s2·3 h),31日21～22时新邵暴雨出现峰值,但螺旋度却开始减小,此后两者又一致地逐渐减弱. |
| 关 键 词： | AREM模式 暴雨 螺旋度 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-4965(2008)01-0088-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006/10/13 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年6月19日 |
NUMERICAL SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF "5.31" HEAVY RAIN EVENT BY AREM 3.0 MODEL |
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| LI Shuai,CHEN Li and REN Yu-yu.NUMERICAL SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF "5.31" HEAVY RAIN EVENT BY AREM 3.0 MODEL[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2008,24(1):94-98. | |
| Authors: | LI Shuai CHEN Li and REN Yu-yu |
| Institution: | Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;Heilongjinag Meteorological Bureau, Harbin 150001, China;Harbin Meteorological Bureau, Harbin 150080, China;School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes winter precipitation and wet days based on daily precipitation data of 595 stations throughout China.The whole country and 8 sub-regions' mean anomaly series of wet days and mean standardized anomaly series of precipitation of winter are calculated by using the method of area-weighted average.8 sub-regions include Northeast China,North China,Mid-lower Yangtze basins,South China,Tibetan Plateau,Southwest China,Eastern Northwest China and Western Northwest China.After analyzing trend coefficients and regression coefficients of winter precipitation and winter wet days of regional mean series and all stations,we draw some conclusions.Tendency of winter wet days has a significant decrease and winter precipitation has no clear trend during the past 54 years.Tendencies of winter wet days in Northeast China and Eastern Northwest China have significant decreases at 0.01 level and that of winter precipitation in Tibetan Plateau has a significant increase at 0.05 level. |
| Keywords: | winter wet days precipitation change characteristics |
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