| 地球工程情景下中国七大区域未来强降水和极端强降水的变化特征对比分析(2010—2099年) |
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| 引用本文： | 孔锋,孙劭,王品,吕丽莉,李颖.地球工程情景下中国七大区域未来强降水和极端强降水的变化特征对比分析(2010—2099年)[J].热带气象学报,2019,35(1):1-13. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孔锋 孙劭 王品 吕丽莉 李颖 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.清华大学公共管理学院应急管理研究基地，北京 100084 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重大科学研究计划2015CB953603国家自然科学基金项目41801064国家自然科学基金项目71790611国家自然科学基金项目41701103中国气象局气候变化专项项目CCSF201843中国气象局气候变化专项项目CCSF201844中亚大气科学研究基金项目CAAS201804 |
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| 摘 要： | 地球工程作为人类影响全球气候的重要工程手段，具有重要的现实意义和科学价值。目前学界在地球工程对极端降水的影响研究方面还处于初始阶段。在这种背景下，基于BNU-ESM模式中地球工程(G4实验)和非地球工程(RCP4.5)情景下的日值降水数据，以95%和99%分位数作为强降水和极端强降水的阈值，分别对比分析两种情景下中国及七大地理分区的强降水和极端强降水在2010—2099年(整个研究时段)、2020—2069年(地球工程实施期间)和2070—2099年(地球工程实施结束)的差异特征。结果表明:(1) 2010—2099年地球工程有利于中国多数地区强降水量和极端强降水量的增加；(2)在实施地球工程的2020—2069年，整体上抑制了中国多数地区强降水量和极端强降水量；(3)在地球工程实施结束后的2070—2099年，地球工程后续影响整体上有利于中国多数地区强降水量和极端强降水量的增加；(4)不同研究时段中国七大地理分区的强降水量和极端强降水量变化趋势均有一定区域差异，且这种差异特征在不同研究时期表现在不同地区。
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| 关 键 词： | 地球工程 极端强降水 变化趋势 波动特征 影响分析 中国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-12-28 |
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF FUTURE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND EXTREMELY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN SEVEN MAJOR REGIONS OF CHINA FROM 2010 TO 2099 UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF GEOENGINEERING |
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| Institution: | 1.Center for Crisis Management Research, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China2.Training Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China3.National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China4.Institute of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China5.Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Hangzhou 310008, China |
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| Abstract: | Geoengineering, as an important means to influencing the global climate, has important practical and scientific value. At present, the study on the influence of geoengineering on extremely precipitation is still in the initial stage. This study uses daily precipitation datasets from the BNU-ESM model of the geoengineering (G4 experiment) and the non geoengineering (RCP4.5). Taking 95% and 99% quantiles as thresholds for heavy precipitation and extremely heavy precipitation, different characteristics of heavy precipitation and extremely heavy precipitation in China and seven geographical divisions during 2010—2099 (whole research period), 2020—2069 (geoengineering implementation period) and 2070—2099 (post-geoengineering implementation period) in two scenarios are compared respectively. The results are shown as follows: The geoengineering is beneficial to the increase of heavy precipitation and extremely heavy precipitation in most areas of China during 2010—2099. In 2020—2069, the years of the implementation of geoengineering, heavy precipitation and extremely heavy precipitation in most areas of China are restrained. In 2070—2099, the years after the implementation of geoengineering, the follow-up effect of geoengineering is in favor of the increase of heavy precipitation and extremely heavy precipitation in most areas of China. The trend of heavy precipitation and extremely heavy precipitation in seven geographical divisions has certain regional differences in different research periods, and this difference is manifested in different regions at different times. |
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