| 北大西洋热带气旋生成频数变化对海温异常响应特征的研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 赵晓彤,余锦华,廖桉桦,顾人颖,闻丹.北大西洋热带气旋生成频数变化对海温异常响应特征的研究[J].热带气象学报,2020,36(2):208-218. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 赵晓彤 余锦华 廖桉桦 顾人颖 闻丹 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.宁波市鄞州区气象局, 浙江 宁波 315194 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金41575083国家自然科学基金41730961 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用美国国家飓风中心(National Hurricane Center, NHC)的Best Track Data (HURDAT2)数据和美国国家预报中心/大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)大气再分析资料, 运用广义平衡反馈分析方法(GEFA), 研究多个海盆主要海表温度异常(SSTA)模对北大西洋热带气旋生成频数(TCGN)气候变率的强迫作用。(1)北大西洋TCGN的气候变率对北大西洋三极型模态(NA1)和太平洋mega-ENSO式模态(P1)具有显著的响应, 对应的响应振幅分别为0.45和-0.28, 即当NA1(P1)的时间系数增加(减小)1个标准差时, 北大西洋TCGN将增加0.45(0.28)个。(2) TCGN对NA1、P1的气候变率、年代际变率有显著响应, 但对年际变率响应不显著。(3)北大西洋TCGN在1995年前后发生异常变化, 从平均8个增加到12.6个, NA1、P1对1995年后的TCGN异常增加的贡献分别为27%、45%。(4) NA1对北大西洋TC环境场的强迫中心多集中在20 °N附近, 而P1的多位于20 °N以南以及墨西哥湾地区, 为TC生成提供有利的动力和热力条件。
|
| 关 键 词： | 北大西洋热带气旋生成频数 GEFA SSTA |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-04-05 |
CONTRIBUTION OF MAJOR SSTA MODES TO TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS FREQUENCY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC |
| |
| ZHAO Xiao-tong,YU Jin-hu,LIAO An-hu,GU Ren-ying,WEN Dan.CONTRIBUTION OF MAJOR SSTA MODES TO TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS FREQUENCY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2020,36(2):208-218. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHAO Xiao-tong YU Jin-hu LIAO An-hu GU Ren-ying WEN Dan |
| |
| Institution: | 1.Ningbo Yinzhou Meteorological Bureau, Ningbo 315194, China2.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology, Nanjing 210044, China3.Zhejiang Meteorological Bureau, Hangzhou 310002, China |
| |
| Abstract: | IContribution of major sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)modes to tropical cyclone genesis frequency(TCGN)over North Atlantic are analyzed based on the Best Track Data(HURDAT2)of National Hurricane Center(NHC) in 1970-2017、the monthly mean SST data of Hadley Center of sea ice and SST、NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly mean data and the generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA) method. The main conclusions are as follows(:1) TCGN climatic variability in North Atlantic has a significant response to NA1 and P1, the feedback intensities are 0.45 and -0.28(. 2) TCGN interdecadal variability in North Atlantic has a significant response to NA1 and P1, but the response is non-significant when it comes to interannual variability.(3)The average of TCGN in 1970-1995 is 8, while it rises to 12.6 in the later period. The contributions of NA1 and P1 in the later period GEFA are 27% and 45%.(4) When it comes to the local environment, the significant response areas to NA1 are located in 20 °N. And the significant response areas to P1 are located in south of 20 °N and the gulf of Mexico. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《热带气象学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《热带气象学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
